How long are you investing?

Dominic Thomas
Feb 2023 • 8 min read

How long are you really investing?

As you know, we use a risk profiling tool, indeed if you have been a client for some years you will know that these have evolved over time. These all tend to test how you feel about investment loss. It’s a bit like throwing a snake into someone’s lap and asking them how they feel about snakes.

In all my time as an adviser I have never met anyone that likes to see the value of their investments reduce. Yet of course they do from time to time – and time is the key word, or perhaps concept.

Investment returns come from companies providing “solutions” to society at large. This results in products and services being sold for a profit and investors in those companies share the rewards of the endeavour. Wherever you are now, take a moment to consider all the things in front of you, to your left and right, including your attire, and perhaps the medication and food you have already ingested today. It’s made, but almost none of it is made by you.

Risky business?

Almost all investment theory works on the assumption that whatever can reduce in value the most is more “risky”. Cash tends not to reduce in value much, except for the impact of inflation or the bank failing. Shares can alter in price dramatically in the course of a few hours. So to simplify, shares are classified as high risk and cash low risk, with Bonds (and there are numerous types) classified as a little higher risk than cash as they provide return of capital and fixed income, much like cash.

Getting the balance between how much you should hold in cash, bonds and shares will dictate your returns (we call this asset allocation). How long you invest for is also a key part of the results. Unfortunately we live in a world obsessed with the short-term and immediate, yet you will almost certainly be investing for the remainder of your life, which I hope is a rather long time.

The interactive chart below shows 1 year returns, 5, 10 and 20 year returns with increased allocation towards shares from Bonds. In this instance the chart uses purely UK data for UK shares and UK Bonds, our portfolios are actually global, but this will hopefully provide some help with long-term thinking and what “risk” really is.

Figures reflect back-tested data for the period 1926-2020. In cases where the minimum return is a positive number, the red bar still portrays the min return but with a positive percentage.

You can draw your own conclusions, using the intelligence bestowed upon you, or you can listen to the the latest ideas about what will happen in the next 12 months, I would advise and suggest taking a much longer-term approach. For the record, the UK stock market is only about 5%-7% of the world stock market, depending on the value of the pound, which is why our clients invest globally.

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How long are you investing?Jemima Thomas2025-01-27T16:24:51+00:00

Taxing your savings

Dominic Thomas
Feb 2023 • 10 min read

Prize – Back to winning ways? Or simply more tax on your savings?

Despite the cold weather and general sense of grey, there are some silver linings. On 24^th January 2023 NS&I increased the interest rates on various accounts.

If you are one of the 870,000 or so people who hold NS&I’s Direct Saver, Income Bonds or Direct Cash ISA, you will now get a little more interest. The interest rate paid on Direct Saver and Income Bonds will increase from 2.30% to 2.60%, whilst the interest rate on Direct ISA will increase from 1.75% tax-free to 2.15% tax-free.

Those of you who like Premium Bonds and remain optimistic of jackpot winnings (less likely than being struck by lightning), the prize fund rate will also increase from 3.00% to 3.15%, effective from the February 2023 prize draw. This follows the rate increasing from 2.20% to 3.00% on New Year’s Day.

NS&I has also increased the interest rate that it pays on its Junior Cash ISA from 2.70% tax-free to 3.40% tax-free, meaning that 80,000 under 18s will benefit from extra interest on their savings, though why anyone would want to hold cash for 18 years is beyond me …

Media spin means that we can confidently say that “today’s changes mean that Income Bonds are now paying their highest rate of interest since 2008” which is of course since the infamous credit crunch. The prize fund on premium bonds is also at its highest level since the great crunch.

The odds of each £1 Bond winning any prize will remain fixed at 24,000 to 1, with the changes meaning that the number of prizes worth £50 to £100,000 will increase from next month’s draw (February 2023). In short, if you have at least £24,000 in Premium Bonds you would be unlucky not to win at least £25 (the smallest but most common prize, paid out on over 2.6m Premium Bonds).

There are an estimated 119 billion premium bonds in issuance. The £1m jackpot is paid out on two bonds every month. So there is roughly a 1 in 59 billion chance of winning the jackpot in any month. It will not surprise you that I don’t believe that reliance on such odds is a good strategy for your future, but I certainly would acknowledge that it’s a little bit of fun.

Current and new Premium Bonds prize fund rate and odds:

Current prize fund rate	Current odds	New prize fund rate (from February 2023)	Odds from February 2023 (no change)
3.00% tax-free	24,000 to 1	3.15% tax-free	24,000 to 1

Number and value of Premium Bonds prizes:

Value of prizes in January 2023	Number of prizes in January 2023	Value of prizes in February 2023 (estimated)	Number of prizes in February 2023 (estimated)
£1,000,000	2	£1,000,000	2
£100,000	56	£100,000	59
£50,000	111	£50,000	117
£25,000	224	£25,000	236
£10,000	559	£10,000	590
£5,000	1,116	£5,000	1,177
£1,000	11,968	£1,000	12,573
£500	35,904	£500	37,719
£100	1,159,432	£100	1,280,509
£50	1,159,432	£50	1,280,509
£25	2,617,902	£25	2,376,161
Total £299,202,350	Total 4,986,706	Total £314,347,875	Total 4,989,652

Variable rate savings products:

Product	Previous interest rate	Interest rate from today (24 January 2023)
Direct Saver	2.30% gross/AER	2.60% gross/AER
Income Bonds	2.30% gross/2.32% AER	2.60% gross/2.63% AER
Direct ISA	1.75% tax-free/AER	2.15% tax-free/AER
Junior ISA	2.70% tax-free/AER	3.40% tax-free/AER

Can you get better rates elsewhere? Of course you can! Remember that non-taxpayers and basic rate taxpayers have the personal savings allowance in 2022/23 of £1,000 of tax-free interest. At an interest rate of say 3%, you would need £33,333 on deposit before tax is triggered. Higher rate taxpayers only have £500 of the allowance, so at an interest rate of 3%, you would only need £16,660 on deposit before tax is triggered. A year ago, you would have been hard pressed to be taxed on £100,000 of savings when interest rates were under 1%.

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Taxing your savingsJemima Thomas2025-01-28T10:05:14+00:00

Purpose – how to plan…

I have shelves of books about financial planning, investing and anything that helps me to improve how I do what I do and how to simplify, explain and address issues that actually matter to you our clients.

One of the lessons that I have learned over the last three decades is that planning for the future is often too far into the future to be meaningful. We all hope to have a rewarding, purposeful and enjoyable life, but thinking about the next thirty years (2052) often feels too distant from the present.

TIME TRAVEL

As I write, it is November 2022, and looking backwards is easier. Three decades ago (November 1992) is the same distance backwards as it is forwards to 2052. Back in 1992 we had just had the ERM crisis, unemployment was 2.7m, Charles & Diana were still unhappily married. The same time traveller distance back to November 1962 and 007 premiered Dr No and Z-Cars was first aired. The Cuban Missile Crisis had just happened, and The Beatles had just released their first single ‘Love Me Do’.

Suffice to say thirty years is a long time and much changes, though most of it is barely noticed on a day-to-day basis. As humans we tend to have short memories, often having to relearn the same lessons.

The cashflow modelling that we have been using with you since it was available, suffers from the same problem, projecting decades out into the future. Of course, I remind you that “this is a version of the future that almost certainly will not happen, as life is not linear and stuff happens” or something along those lines.

On the one hand I need to extol the rationale, logic and purpose of having a long-term mindset, and on the other I am aware that we really cannot predict anything. The last five years were probably unthinkable to most of us decade ago.

So we focus on the gradual accumulation of small changes that all add up to a better future. Taking advantage of improvements in technology, lower charges and efficiencies. Yet I still find the daily use of pad and paper something that I am unlikely to give up easily. Even holding a printed document is better than a pdf.

Planning ahead for me means considering the year, quarters, weeks and days. I use a planner and despite all the workflows and tech, the planner is really my personal account and guide. This is really a place for my values and aspirations or goals both personally and for the business. The self-accounting enables me to not simply get things done, but to get the important things done… or at least progressed.

Quarterly planning is nothing to do with investment valuations or market conditions, but ensuring you are taking action to progress towards your goals whilst living out your own values consistently and authentically. Planning with purpose.

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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Purpose – how to plan…Jemima Thomas2023-12-01T12:12:42+00:00

What drives investments returns?

What drives investment returns?

Here is a piece from another good communicator at Dimensional – one I have met (and he’s as thoroughly entertaining as he is decent). Weston Wellington (what a great name!) penned this piece for Dimensional and I have permission to share it with you, I think it provides some useful insights. I hope you agree. As ever, there are American references, but if we are looking after your portfolio, you will recall that we invest globally and that the US market makes up about half of the world stock market by valuations. Over to Weston…

A recent news item reported that Frederick Smith intended to step down as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of FedEx Corp., the largest air freight firm in the world.

FedEx for a Mr Smith…

As a Yale undergraduate in 1965, Smith wrote a term paper for his economics course outlining an overnight air delivery service for urgently needed items such as medicines or computer parts. His professor was not much impressed with the paper, but after a stint in the Air Force, Smith sought to put his classroom idea into practice. He founded Federal Express (now FedEx) in 1971, and one evening in April 1973, 14 Dassault Falcon jets took off from Memphis airport with 186 packages destined for 25 cities.

In retrospect, it was not an auspicious time to launch a new venture requiring expensive aircraft consuming large quantities of jet fuel. Oil prices rose sharply later that year following the Arab states’ oil embargo, and the US economy fell into a deep recession. Most airlines struggled during the 1970s, and Federal Express was no exception.

But Smith’s idea found favour with customers, and 49 years after its initial deliveries, the firm is a global colossus with over 650 aircraft, including 42 Boeing 777s—each of which can fly more cargo than 100 Falcons. Although it took over two years to turn its first profit, FedEx became the first start-up in American history to generate over $1 billion in revenue in less than 10 years without relying on mergers or acquisitions. The journey has proved rewarding for investors as well—100 shares purchased at the initial offering price of $24 in 1978 has mushroomed to 3,200 shares worth over $718,000 as of May 31, 2022.*

Fred Smith’s idea is just one example of ingenuity that humans have exhibited for centuries. Sticks and stones led to hammers and spears, the wheel and axle, the steam engine, and eventually semiconductors and jet aircraft. The invention of writing made it possible to store and hand down information from one generation to the next, enabling ingenuity to compound into an ever-increasing body of knowledge. Although we often associate innovation with clever new technology, some remarkable developments have required little more than astute powers of observation. The curse of smallpox, for example, has afflicted humans with death or disfigurement for thousands of years. English doctor Edward Jenner noticed that milkmaids who had previously experienced cowpox did not catch smallpox, and in 1796, he took material from a milkmaid’s cowpox sore and inoculated James Phipps, the nine-year-old son of his gardener. Later exposed to the virus, Phipps never developed smallpox, and Jenner published a treatise on vaccination in 1801. Smallpox vaccines gradually eliminated the disease in countries around the world, and the last known case was reported in Somalia in 1977.

ONE INNOVATION PAVES THE WAY FOR OTHERS

Charles Lindbergh took off from Long Island for his historic transatlantic flight to Paris on May 20, 1927. That same day, J. Willard Marriott opened a nine-stool lunch counter serving cold A&W root beer in Washington, D.C. Ten years later he began to supply box lunches to airlines flying from nearby Hoover airport and 20 years later opened the world’s first motor hotel in Arlington, Virginia. Today, Marriott is the world’s leading travel firm, with over 8,000 hotel properties in 139 countries.
The now-ubiquitous microwave oven can trace its roots to a happy accident. While working on radar equipment in 1945 for Massachusetts-based Raytheon, electronics engineer Percy Spencer noticed that the chocolate bar in his pocket had suddenly melted. His curiosity led to the introduction of commercial-grade water-cooled microwave ovens in 1947 costing thousands and ultimately to countertop units available today for $99.
Frustrated by lengthy delays associated with loading and unloading cargo ships, trucking firm owner Malcolm McLean launched a shipping service in 1956 using standardized steel containers of his own design. Met with great scepticism when first introduced, his idea for theftproof stackable cargo boxes eventually transformed the global shipping industry—and world trade—by slashing dockside loading costs over 90%.
On June 26, 1974, cashier Sharon Buchanan inaugurated the era of barcode inventory tracking when she scanned a pack of Juicy Fruit gum bearing a Universal Product Code at Marsh Supermarket in Troy, Ohio. Barcode scanners eliminated the drudgery and inevitable mistakes associated with manual entry by checkout clerks and provided store managers with powerful tools to track sales trends. As retailers such as Home Depot, Ross Stores, and Walmart expanded throughout the country in recent decades, barcode technology played a key role in matching inventory with local preferences at each location.
In March 2022, a 20-year-old woman born with a small and misshapen right ear received a 3D-printed ear implant made from her own cells and shaped to precisely match her other ear. Although experimental, the procedure represented a significant advance in tissue engineering and could eventually lead to artificial organs such as lungs or kidneys.

THE BENEFITS OF INNOVATION ARE WIDELY DISPERSED

The benefits of innovation are widely dispersed throughout the economy, often in unpredictable ways. Apple Inc. became one of the world’s most valuable companies based on its clever marriage of the computer and the telephone; both iPhone users and Apple shareholders reaped substantial rewards.

On the other hand, suppose your fairy godmother had told you in 1935, at the dawn of commercial air travel, that this tiny sector of the economy would eventually become a gigantic industry with millions of passengers flying every year—including some flying from breakfast in New York to Los Angeles for dinner. What would your prediction be for industry pioneers such as TWA or Pan American? Most likely, bountiful prosperity and rewarding stock market performance. The millions of passengers materialized. The profits did not. Both firms went bankrupt. So innovation itself does not ensure prosperity in every case.

That’s why it makes sense to diversify. Investors are often tempted to focus their attention on firms that appear poised to benefit from innovation. But it’s difficult to predict which ideas will prove successful, and even if we could, it’s unclear which firms will benefit and to what extent. Software giant Microsoft has been a big winner for investors, with the share value soaring more than 100-fold over the 30-year period ending May 31, 2022. Discount retailer Ross Stores proved even more rewarding, as the stock price multiplied over 189 times during the same period. One firm developed powerful computer technology and the other applied it.

Civilization is a history of innovation—curious minds seeking to improve upon existing ways of meeting mankind’s wants and needs. Public securities markets are just one example of such creativity, and they have a history of rewarding investors for the capital they supply to fund such innovation. But a significant fraction of the wealth created in public equity markets typically comes from only a small number of firms; therefore, we believe owning a broad universe of stocks is the most effective way to participate in the rewards of ingenuity and innovation, wherever and whenever it takes place.

Footnotes

*Stock split information sourced from FedEx investor relations website. Stock price information provided by Bloomberg. This is not taking into account cash dividends or any reinvestment.

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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What drives investments returns?Dominic2023-12-01T12:12:44+00:00

Wishes, forecasts & worries

Here is another great piece I came across by David Booth, Founder of Dimensional Investors. David is one of the genuine sage’s of investing and I have great respect for him and his business. So I thought I’d share this piece which is timely.

When I was growing up, our local newspaper, the Kansas City Star, was full of news and had one page for opinion. After decades of cable news and nonstop digital postings, I see more opinions these days than news. That’s not a bad thing. But when it comes to investing, it’s crucial to remember the difference between news and opinion, and how they are sometimes used to forecast the future.

Any time the government releases new data on unemployment or inflation or interest rate changes, people start claiming they can forecast the future. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either. But most of what I hear people say isn’t what I would call “forecasting.”

Forecasting is when you have a high degree of confidence in an outcome based on well-proven models. The weather forecast for a few days from now is a lot better than anything I read in the Kansas City Star about investing. The weather forecast is pretty darn accurate. I’d sure call that kind of forecast the right use of the word. That’s different from someone issuing a “forecast” for when the Dow will hit a certain number. Or when inflation will reach a certain level. Or which five stocks will rise the most over the next year.

So when people say they forecast that something will be at this level at that time, I don’t call that a forecast.

That’s a wish.

And when people forecast that something will go down at a certain time?

That’s a worry.

DON’T BASE YOUR PLAN ON WISHFUL THINKING

Do you really want to invest your hard-earned savings—the money you’ll need for your kids’ college or your own retirement—based on someone’s hunch or wish?

The good news is you can have a good experience without having to do any forecasting—I believe you just need to be a long-term investor with a truly diversified portfolio.

Over the last 100 years or so, the average return of the market has been about 10% a year.1 I won’t call it a forecast, but my best guess is that over the next 100 years the average annual return will be about 10%. Of course, there may be large fluctuations, just like we have experienced for the last 100 years (and like we have experienced in the last six months).

Instead of forecasting, focus on the power of what I think has been behind the stock returns of the last 100 years: human ingenuity. Millions of people at thousands of companies working to improve their product, enhance their service, and lower their costs—and all adapting in real time to a changing world. We witnessed the power of human ingenuity over the course of the pandemic. I’m seeing it again as companies adjust to deal with inflation.

The world has changed in so many ways since I was a kid reading the Kansas City Star. I still occasionally read it on my phone now. (It makes me chuckle when I imagine trying to explain to my grandparents that I read the newspaper on the phone.) While I expect the world to keep changing—I’m not forecasting when or how—I am confident that human ingenuity will be a constant. Whether in good times or bad, that’s reason to be optimistic.

DAVID BOOTH

DIMENSIONAL Executive Chairman and Founder

Footnotes

1 In US dollars. S&P 500 Index annual returns 1926–2021. S&P data © 2022 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment, therefore their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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Wishes, forecasts & worriesDominic2023-12-01T12:12:44+00:00

HELPING FIRST TIME BUYERS

TODAY’S BLOG

HELPING FIRST TIME BUYERS

You may be aware that buying your first home is and has been fairly difficult, largely due to the inflated price of property and incomes that simply do not keep up at the same rate. Successive Governments have attempted to address this problem with initiatives, including adjusting stamp duty, capital gains tax and providing a type of ISA which has +25% tax relief as a bonus if used for a deposit on a property. This began with the Help to Buy ISA in 2015 to be replaced by the Lifetime ISA or LISA (the tinkering seems endless and neurotic). The Help to Buy ISA is only available to those who opened one before December 2019 and will cease completely from December 2029.

I won’t go into all the detail here about the differences and appropriateness, suffice to say that a LISA has a £4,000 tax year contribution cap of the standard £20,000 allowance.

HMRC’s latest quarterly statistics on Help to Buy ISAs have been released. These cover the period from 1 December 2015 to 31 December 2021.

The statistics show that since the launch of the Help to Buy ISA, 480,494 property completions have been supported by the scheme and 630,264 bonuses have been paid through the scheme (totalling £714 million) with an average bonus value of £1,132. It may not surprise you to learn that 2021 saw the highest number of purchases to date.

The table below shows the number of property completions supported by the scheme broken down by property value:

The highest number of property completions with the support of the scheme is in the North West (13%) and Yorkshire and the Humber (10%), with the lowest numbers in the North East, Northern Ireland and Wales. London buyers accounted for 8% of all completions but with a much higher average price of £330,661 – double the price paid in most of the UK.

The statistics also show:

The mean value of a property purchased through the scheme is £175,849 compared to an average first-time buyer house price of £228,627 and a national average house price of £274,712.
65.3% of first-time buyers who have been supported by the scheme were between the ages of 25 to 34.
The median age of a first-time buyer in the scheme is 28 compared to a national first-time buyer median age of 30.

It would be unfair to suggest that the scheme isn’t working that well, but in practice taxpayer money is funding private property purchases, which are predominantly helping those living in areas of already cheap (by comparison) homes. Personally I am not convinced by the system. It does very little to really control the problem of soaring property prices, if anything it may add to it …

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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HELPING FIRST TIME BUYERSJemima Thomas2025-01-21T16:32:38+00:00

MORTGAGE PAYMENTS UP

TODAY’S BLOG

MORTGAGE PAYMENTS UP

As you know, the Bank of England raised the base rate recently and some lenders took the opportunity to increase the rate of borrowing on mortgages and loans – but with a bigger increase in the rate than the Bank of England.

For those who have a mortgage, it is worth checking that you are happy with your interest rate. Admittedly, changing lenders can be a bit of a pain, but we are likely to have rates increase further over the next two years (perhaps longer) as the ‘battle against inflation’ rages on; though in reality I doubt very much that the Bank will raise rates enough for fear of causing recession.

Remember that these days most mortgage lenders will permit you to overpay a loan by around 10% of the balance each year. A fixed rate mortgage will invariably have a penalty if you change the terms (by exiting the mortgage). The penalty, known as an early redemption charge, can often be a significant amount, based on the amount of the remaining balance.

A fixed rate provides a degree of certainty about how much you will pay each month for the set duration of the rate. Thereafter, you will be on the lender’s standard variable rate (which is much higher than most normal rates at present). A variable rate simply means that as rates alter (up or down) your mortgage payments follow suit.

Anyway, if you require help with your mortgage, we can put you in touch with some whole of market independent mortgage brokers. Just ask us.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

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Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

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MORTGAGE PAYMENTS UPJemima Thomas2025-01-21T16:32:38+00:00

YOU ARE ALREADY READY – WIMBLEDON AND WINNERS

TODAY’S BLOG

YOU ARE ALREADY READY – WIMBLEDON AND WINNERS

I was watching the local tennis tournament in Wimbledon and for some reason a comment by the BBC commentator, John Inverdale struck a chord. It wasn’t a particularly unusual comment and nothing new, but for some reason it resonated, and I think he was spot on.

He said (and I may paraphrase)

“I was at Roehampton last week for the qualifying, I was interviewing one of the players that got through and asked: at match point, one point away from qualifying, what were you thinking? the answer was I wished I was anywhere but there… which is very different from a Champion who revels in such moments.

If you didn’t know who they were, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference between most players, but it’s at the key moments, when the match is tantalisingly poised… invariably it’s the It’s the champion that’s been there more often who comes through.”

Apologies to Mr. Inverdale if I haven’t transcribed that perfectly. Anyway, if I understood correctly, he was really stating that winners seem to win more frequently because they are better in the tense moments. Something that I suspect we might all agree on.

YOU’VE GOT THIS…

It reminded me of a chart that I have been using with clients recently. We know that markets have been difficult or “volatile” this year. The histogram I have been discussing is this one.

In simple terms it shows the calendar year returns of the UK stock market from 1926 to 2021. Everything right of 0% (column 5) ending the year positively, to the left (the first four columns) – negatively. The good news is that since 1926 there have been rather more years of positive returns (72/96) or 75% of all years.

I’ve been considering how we all handle stock market crashes and I think its right to remind ourselves of the awful investing years that we have lived through… depending on when you became an investor (most of you would not have been investors (aged 18) before 1955). So it seems reasonable to point out that you have lived through more than your fair share of bad investment years… you’d have to be at least 67 to have been an adult investor in 1973 and 1974, two of the worst years, but I suspect most have experienced 1990, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011, 2018, 2020. Returning to the tennis analogy, these were the tense, big moments. You held your nerve and survived. You are still here; you and your portfolio have survived.

The way media and arguably regulation presents investment is to focus on the negative years. We can agree and acknowledge that “bad years” for investors come around regularly – 1 in 4 is a negative year. We are all adults and know this. Whatever is thrown at us over the coming months you have the genuine life experience to fall back on. You have been here before. Hold fast and play the long game, progressing through your own journey to the final.

If you are concerned about your portfolio please get in touch with me. If you know someone that is, why not suggest that they get in touch too. The greats all have coaches, but talent is what you possess already. A coach seeks to maximise yours.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

Take Survey

PRIVACY POLICY | DATA PROTECTION

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

Take Survey

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YOU ARE ALREADY READY – WIMBLEDON AND WINNERSDominic2023-12-01T12:12:48+00:00

INFLATION, INTEREST – THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURT

TODAY’S BLOG

THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURT…

If you are a car driver as I know most of you are, the current price of petrol will almost certainly have caused a gulp of disbelief as you fill up your “pride and joy”. The rate of inflation may be a testing 9% or 10% (next release from the ONS is next week) but the price of fuel is rising much faster than that. Indeed, I have noticed the price at a station change within the space of a return trip to a local garden centre.

Today, 16th June 2022 unleaded petrol is around £1.87 a litre or £1.93 for diesel. In June 2020 it was £1.07 and £1.11 respectively. That’s an increase of 74% in a year. If only I could tell you that investments had fared as well, they haven’t. Markets have been very difficult lately, largely since November. Global equities are down 1.48% over 12 months and global bonds are down 12.01%. When the numbers go in opposite directions to our daily reality of the cost of living it becomes alarming.

I am not going to pretend to you that this is easy or that inflation will quickly disappear as the Bank of England appears to believe (returning to around 2.4% in 2024). We could be in for inflation that lasts rather longer than that. Sadly, we are in short supply of good politicians around the world, those that we have seem intent on destroying any sense of self-respect. The “unexpected” war in Ukraine is certainly lasting longer than most expected… which does leave me wondering, who on earth is doing this “expecting”? most of the hard-nosed realists I know do not have much faith in politicians to resolve much at all, other than their own salaries and second jobs.

THE JUBILEE, 1977 AND A 67% MARKET DECLINE

If the Jubilee parties didn’t remind you of 1977, the impending rail strikes and some of the economic data may soon help you to do so. Still, we have learned lessons from the past haven’t we! I imagine that you appreciate that I am being a little sarcastic. Sadly, you and I cannot control very much of what is going on. We can control how we respond. All the lessons of history are that successful investing means riding out the peaks and troughs of the global market cycles. Some of these are very deep and “hurt”. For some context, the average bear market since 1926 fell by -35% and lasted 18 months. Some were worse, some better (hence average). The worst fall was in June 1972, markets collapsed -67% and the bear market lasted 2 years 7 months. £100,000 in 1972 would have fallen to around £33,000 however for those that held their nerve that same £100,000 became £1,207,159 when considered over 154 months (12 years 10 months). That is amazing isn’t it… but so few investors had the patience, confidence or perhaps ability to stay the course. This is not easy, hindsight is easy, the present and an unknown future are “difficult” yet that is the reality of our daily lives. Complex, unknown and full of conflicting messages and competing media.

Today the Bank of England raised its base rate to 1.25%. Let me get ahead of the “news services” and spin this in different ways. Interest rates have increased 25% overnight. The highest for over a decade. This is true, but in the context of interest rates they are half as much as they were in November 2008 (3%). When I started the firm in 1999, rates were 5% (some 333% higher). When I started in this game, they were 10.88% and I have a very real experience of them at 14.88%.

Life changes, your plans may need updating, but your main priorities and principles are unlikely to alter at all. Do get in touch with me if you are concerned. As I may have said, investing is a long-term, a lifelong process. Remember your money should serve you, not the other way around.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk
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Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

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INFLATION, INTEREST – THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURTDominic2023-12-01T12:12:49+00:00

UTILITIES BILL: WATT SHOULD I DO?

TODAY’S BLOG

WATT SHOULD I DO…

As I’m sure you’re aware, energy prices have gone through the (hopefully insulated) roof. Let’s dive into the details as to why this is, and the action being taken to mitigate the problem. First things first, gas prices have skyrocketed as a consequence of huge demand outstripping supply. With 85% of UK households using gas boilers it’s no surprise that the UK has been heavily impacted. However, increasing demand is not the sole factor in this equation. With the outbreak of conflict in eastern Europe, the UK and much of the EU has lost one of its gas suppliers in Russia, which made up 10% of the UK’s natural gas imports. While this might not seem to be a massive amount, other European nations are considerably more dependent on Russia and its exports.

In hopes of mitigating the steep rise in energy prices, the British government has offered grants of up to £350 to millions of households across the country to alleviate pressure on the purse strings. They have also invested considerably in renewable energy over the past decade, totalling around £90 billion. Key areas of investment include a handful of nuclear power plants and tripling the UK’s already world-leading offshore wind power figures.

The trouble is that developing a well-diversified power network takes time. These are long-term projects that won’t be complete for several years and they are EXPENSIVE. Which begs the question, is enough being done in the short-term? Is there even anything else that can be done? Especially since we haven’t seen the worst of it yet. Various predictions assert that we could see the price cap rise another 26% this coming winter, and with 30% of people reporting that their energy bill direct debits have doubled since the increase earlier this year (according to a survey conducted by moneysavingexpert.com), there should be a very real fear about the ramifications of two large energy price cap increases in the same year.

Finally, what options do we have to best protect ourselves and save our money? The general consensus is to stay put for now, especially if you have a fixed contract with your energy supplier. Regardless, it may still be worth remaining vigilant for better deals as always (although they are pretty scarce at the moment). Ultimately, these are turbulent times and the dynamic nature of this sector makes it difficult to say anything with certainty. Just keep an ion things!

Since writing this piece, more updates and projections have been released by Ofgem. They are warning of further price cap increases this October by an average of £800. That’s roughly a 40% increase. Consequently many experts are changing their tune slightly, and are now saying it may be worth switching if you can get a fixed rate of 35-40%. If you’d like to do some further reading on the subject I have a few links to some articles I think you may find interesting:

Sam Harris
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

Take Survey

PRIVACY POLICY | DATA PROTECTION

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

Take Survey

PRIVACY POLICY | DATA PROTECTION

UTILITIES BILL: WATT SHOULD I DO?Jemima Thomas2025-01-23T10:50:33+00:00