STAMPS TELL STORIES OF INFLATION

TODAY’S BLOG

THE PRICE OF A STAMP

Royal Mail announced yet another increase to the price of a first-class stamp. As of 23 March 2020, the price will rise from 70p to 76p. Second class rises 4p to 65p. This will possibly have you gasping at yet another increase and recollecting when stamps used to be much cheaper.

This neatly leads me to discuss the topic of inflation. Whatever anyone within the financial world tells you, this is arguably the most devastating element to your financial wellbeing. Imagine you have £100,000 and inflation runs at an average 3% a year. Over the course of 25 years £100,000 is effectively worth £50,000.

Most people should be investing for decades, not days, weeks or months – decades. Your finances need to outlast you. When you enter the adult workforce and ultimately leave it, you have to rely on your investments to provide an income.

First Class 1970,1980,1990,2000,2010

FIVE DECADES OF FIRST CLASS STAMPS

The price of a first-class stamp 10 years ago was 41p. In the millennium year 27p would have covered the cost of your standard first-class letter, which was not that much more than the 22p it cost in 1990. If you remember 1980, you will perhaps remember the 12p first class stamp and a decade before that – well, we hadn’t yet gone decimal, so 5d would have paid for your first-class letter which is around 2p. Over 50 years the price has risen from 2p to 76p for the same service.

The illustrations that you receive about investments (which are nothing like as beautiful as those of stamps) try to account for inflation, typically assuming 2.5%. CPI (yet another measure of inflation) is currently 1.8%.

IS YOUR MONEY GOING BACK IN TIME?

So, think on this. If your money in the bank is getting less than 1.8% interest, you are losing money. Your purchasing power is shrinking. Whilst this is great for those that owe money, it is terrible for those living off their savings. Yet I regularly come across people that lack into 3 or 5 years fixed rates of interest that are less than inflation. There are a variety of reasons, partly poor alternative cash deposit rates, but also a deep misunderstanding of how investments work and the dreaded “stock market” which news outlets seem to do their best to instils a sense of terror at the daily movements.

THERE IS NEVER A RIGHT TIME TO INVEST

Many of you worry about the right time to invest – the truth is, that it was 50 years ago, but otherwise it is today. Yes, we do not know what will happen to the UK economy, (we never do) we are facing all sorts of significant problems (again) but these will pass (again) being replaced by the next round of bad news and you will still have to live with the consequences of your decisions.

CHECK YOU ARE NOT DESIGNING TO FAIL

As the tax year is drawing to a close, check that you are not holding too much in cash. Certainly, having access to cash is vital – for planned expenses and the occasional mishap. You should have an emergency fund if your income is likely to stop. However, beyond that, you need to deploy your money to work for you over the coming decades so that it grows faster than inflation.

Do not make the mistakes you made a decade ago, holding onto cash and worrying about the financial crisis, or the decade before about Y2K or the one before that… inflation does not reward anxiety, it eats it for breakfast.

Pick up your phone or send me an email. It’s about time that this was mastered. Let’s get started…

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

STAMPS TELL STORIES OF INFLATION2023-12-01T12:13:23+00:00

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL

TODAY’S BLOG

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL…

I’ve been trying to think of ways to explain the benefit of long-term investing. I’m not a big beer drinker, but given that when I do go to a pub, I’m always shocked at how much a pint of beer is. According to the ONS, the average pint of beer in the UK was £3.67 in January this year. Clearly a  national average, because that wouldn’t buy much in London.

30 Years Ago… 1989

Anyway, let’s suppose I am someone that likes to buy the occasional pint of beer. As I get older, like most people I tend to remember elements of the past fondly. Particularly this time of year as students return to University. 30 years ago, perhaps you were at University or had long since left. 1989 – the time when Nigel Lawson was replaced as Chancellor by John Major. Simply Red had a hit album “A New Flame”; Challenge Anneka had aired for the first time and Nick Faldo won the Open. A pint of beer back then was £1.03.

BOTTLES OF BEER

YOUR ANXIETY

Let’s suppose you had £1000 you wanted to do something with. The memory of Michael Fish and the great storm closely followed by Black Monday was fairly fresh in your memory. You didn’t fancy the stock market. So you found a decent deposit account, rates were high causing problems for borrowers but great for savers at 14%.

Thirty years later that £1000 had risen to £2,080 by January this year. You had forgotten about it except for when you sighed with relief as economic recessions came, Y2K, Dotcom bubble, Korean crisis, 9/11, credit crunch – you had avoided them all.

Yet there is a problem. In 1989 your £1000 would have bought a 30-year younger you 970 pints of beer. Today your £2,080 would only stretch to 566 pints.

Your Uni Friend John had a PEP

Your good friend John from University had put his money into the UK stock market, he put £1,000 into a Personal Equity Plan, some quirky idea brought in by Nigel Lawson. He bought a FTSE100 tracker fund (ok, maybe not, but stay with me). He had to live with the same economic stresses and saw the topsy turvy workings of the stock market. However, at the end of 30 years his £1000 was worth £11,494. He hadn’t touched it (neither had his adviser) and so all dividends were reinvested. This sort of money enables John to buy 3,131 pints of beer. That’s 5 times more than your 556 pints.

Julia also had a PEP

John is fairly happy, but his girlfriend Julia at the time also put £1,000 into a PEP, but she put it all into the FTSE250 tracker. She figured that slightly smaller companies might do a bit better than bigger ones. Lo and behold, Julia’s £1,000 has turned into £20,818. Julia can buy 5,672 pints of beer, that’s ten times (10x) TEN TIMES as much as your 556 pints.

OK – Smallprint (or not) Caveat Emptor…

Admittedly I have taken some liberties with costs, charges and the available funds in 1989. The biggest liberty I really took was suggesting that people leave their money alone. They/we don’t. We all tend to fiddle around, attempting to find a slightly or perhaps considerably “better” option.

Long story short, when considering investment for decades, what on earth does “risk” really mean? The risk of the power of the money in your pocket being worth less (or worthless) due to rising prices? The risk of seeing your money stagnate in cash? The risk of seeing the value of investments rise then fall?

30 Years £1000

Monsters grow

What ought to be blindingly clear…. don’t let your anxiety dictate your financial planning and investment strategy. It is a dreadful guide to future performance. The monster at your door is inflation, however small it seems today, feed it for 30 years and it’s still hungry and likely to eat you alive.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL2023-12-01T12:17:12+00:00

THREE DECADES OF RETIREMENT

Three Decades of Retirement

Three decades of retirement is the prospect that many people face if you believe that longevity is improving in general. That’s three decades to live off your investments, pensions and savings combined with any other forms of income from your State Pension and perhaps an employer’s final salary (defined benefit) pension which typically begin payments at 60, 65 or 67.

Three decades is a long time, with a lot of living to be done. To put this into perspective, it is now 2018, 30 years ago was 1988, which frankly does not seem that long ago does it? You remember 1988. It was the year the SDP merged with the Liberals, Margaret Thatcher became the longest serving PM and Comic Relief was launched. Nurses went on strike over pay. Red Nose Day raised £15m within a month the £1 note became obsolete and the Chancellor of the day Nigel Lawson cut the basic rate of tax to just 25%.

If you are into your sport, well Liverpool were beaten in the FA Cup final by Wimbledon. Graeme Hick scored a record 405 runs in a county match. Sandy Lyle won the US Masters. “Gaza” became the first £2m footballer moving from Newcastle to Spurs. The Seoul Olympics saw Team GB win 5 gold medals (hockey, swimming, rowing, shooting and sailing).

Released in 1987, Faith was the top selling album of 1988.

Another year, just like any other…

As with every year, it had its share of horror and disaster, Piper Alpha, Pan Am 103 exploding over Lockerbie, killing 207 people and a train crash at Clapham Junction killed 35 people. Edwina Currie managed to create an egg crisis. British films released included “Buster”, “A Fish Called Wanda” and “A Handful of Dust”. Michael Douglas won best actor for his role in “Wall Street” ad “The Last Emperor” picked up a stack of awards. Kylie Minogue started her pop career with “I Should Be So Lucky” (she was) and life was “Perfect” for Fairground Attraction. I was one of 80,000 at Wembley for the “Free Nelson Mandela Concert” and his 70th birthday. He was still imprisoned (not released until 1990).

Then and Now

If you are over the age of 40 this may jog a few memories of 30 years ago. The UK population was   about 56m today its about 66.5m. There were about 55,000 first-time graduates, now the number is around 414,000. The Bank of England’s base rate began 1988 at 8.37% but ended at 12.87% (yesterday the Bank increased the rate from 0.50% to 0.75% and some got worried). The FTSE100 closed the year at 1,793 yesterday it closed at 7,575 and that excludes all income from dividends over 30 years. A 10-year UK Government Bond paid about 9.79% in 1988, today around 1.23%. In short equities have gone up, Bonds have gone down. £100 in 1988 would need to be £260.44 in 2018 simply to be “worth” the same because of inflation. That’s an average rate of about 3.24%, in short, the value of your pound has more than halved.

Multiple Choices, Make them Count

This is history, a version of it. If you are now in your mid 40s or older, this is time spent. Who knows how long any of us have left but making the most of life and getting our money to last, whatever it brings is the prospect that you face. We work with clients taking a long-term perspective of life and money. We regularly review progress and make adjustments to ensure that your financial planning remains on course. Change is the constant that we all live with, but many investment principles are timeless, knowing what to adjust is probably more important than knowing you need to.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

THREE DECADES OF RETIREMENT2023-12-01T12:17:53+00:00

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

I have been enjoying several films at the BFI London Film Festival. One that stood out for me was “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” which is adapted from the book by Peter Turner. It tells of the unusual relationship between a young Peter Turner and former film noir femme fatale, who most are likely to have seen but perhaps not remember – Gloria Grahame.

Grahame’s career in film began with a small part in “It’s A Wonderful Life” you may recall how George Bailey gives Violet Bick funds to escape the small town and make a name for herself elsewhere. She won an OSCAR for her role on The Bad and the Beautiful and performed with some of the leading lights of the 1950s.

In A Lonely Place

The film is based on her encounter and 2-year relationship with Turner, who she initially meets in London whilst back treading the boards. Then in her mid-fifties, divorced 4 times and surrounded in scandal she begins a relationship with Turner, who at 27 wasn’t even born when Grahame had completed work on The Bad and the Beautiful. We are shown brief insights into her chaotic world and the scandals that inevitably ended her career in film. Her last husband, Anthony Ray, was her stepson (from her second husband) and the marriage lasted from 1960 until 1974 resulting in two children.

A Woman’s Secret

The film implies that Grahame was pretty much financially ruined, appearing to possess a mobile home / caravan on the Californian coastline. Perhaps because of 4 divorces or a career that was cut short, or even because of illness, but clearly the glamour and glitter of her star had burned out. (Spoiler) Ultimately her life is cut short due to a recurrence of cancer, though this is fairly evident as the likely outcome from the start of the film, so I’m not really spoiling it for you.

Odds Against Tomorrow

There are some broad financial lessons here. The audience laughter at a scene where two pints of beer are ordered for 90 pence, was probably the loudest in a film that clearly isn’t designed to be funny; but the long-term impact of inflation is not really the most obvious lesson here. Fame that brings financial success can be very short-lived. Life as an actor can be very harsh. Divorce is financially expensive, but of course the toll on emotional reserves may also be overwhelming. Love and tenderness are often found in unexpected places and whilst care costs, it may not have a monetary price. In a world of appearances many are in danger of making similar “mistakes” or having similar experiences.

The Cobweb

Financial protection is a modern-day (or should that be post-modern?) wonder for those without capital – providing financial stability in the event of life presenting “challenges”. Running out of money isn’t as bad as running out of time, but it’s probably a pretty close race. A proper financial plan will help reveal where your resources are and what you can do to sure them up. It enables you to take a look at the future and make some adjustments in advance if you don’t like the prospects.

Here’s the trailer for the movie, which reunites Jamie Bell and Julie Walters, this time as mother and son, whilst Annette Bening gives a great performance as Gloria Grahame.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool2023-12-01T12:18:22+00:00

Remembering Montmartre 1899

Remembering Montmartre 1899

It is 1899 and I’m at the latest Secret Cinema event, transported back in time to Montmartre, Paris in 1899, arriving at la vie Boheme – the Moulin Rouge. We are greeted by Monsieur Zidler and shortly bump into a certain Henri, one Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec with friends and then serenaded by a new young writer. We marvel at the guests, who like ourselves are not themselves, but suitably attired for their profession in 1899.

Most will not be familiar with Secret Cinema, it is, after all, secret and has a tag line, reminiscent of Fight Club – Tell No One. The concept is simple – gather a crowd of film lovers to come along to watch a movie together. The twist is that its immersive to the extent that there is a successful attempt to create the feeling of being in the movie, with not simply “sets” but landscapes to explore. Engage, (in character) with the actors who perform their screen roles before and during the screening of the film. It’s a lot of fun.

Champagne Lifestyle

Sadly not all in Montmartre was 1899 – the prices certainly were not. A bottle of Champagne (well why not? after all Monsieur Pol Roger died in 1899 and Jules Medot founded the Champagne house Louis-de-Custine in 1899) at the Moulin Rouge was £40 and as we all know that doesn’t go terribly far… So pandering to my slightly sad interest in inflation, I wondered what the price of Champagne was in 1899 and whether it was possible to re-inflate it back to 2017. Sadly the £40 price tag for a bottle of Champagne in 2017 wasn’t deflated to the 1899 price of just 33pence (best attempt)…..probably just as well, £40 then would have bought 121 bottles.  Inflation is arguably the most underestimated element that any investor must contend with and must be factored into any sensible financial plan.

Returning to the 70’s?

Many are currently suggesting that due to Brexit and the unfathomable Mr Trump, we are (collectively) in for a bumpy ride, perhaps something akin to the 1970s. If this does indeed become the case, presumably we can expect power cuts, strikes, industrial meltdown, oil price hikes and rampant inflation (well, by British standards anyhow). Personally, whilst I’m not pretending that everything is well, I don’t have a bleak outlook and find many of the scaremongering, nothing other than a tune for peddling. It is probably obvious to you by now that I’m not a fan of Mr Trump, or Brexit,

Inflating the figures

Anyway, back to the inflation issue and the 1970s. Remember that for the power of your £1 to remain the same it needs to keep pace with inflation. How inflation is measured is of course hugely contentious. We tend to use CPI and RPI as the most common metrics. That said, there often seems to be a disconnection between the rising prices of things you personally pay for and what the Office of National Statistics say they are. This isn’t a political jibe, if most of your spending is on utilities, then it’s likely that your personal rate of inflation is rather higher.

How do you remember the 1970s?

For the record, £100 at the end of 1970 was £364 by the end of 1980 because of the inflation (RPI) in the 1970s, which increased 9%, in 1971 then 7.6%, 10.6%, 19.2%, 24.9%, 15.1%, 12.1%, 8.4%, 17.2% and 15.1% in 1980.  This represents an average annualized inflation rate of 13.3%. The FTSE All-Share achieved an average annualized return of 12.2%. So didn’t quite keep pace with inflation and saw some huge market declines (-28.6% in 1973 and -51.6% in 1974) Any investor that lost their nerve at the end of 1974 would have missed out on the 151.4% recovery in 1975. These huge changes eventually ushered in a fundamental change in monetary policy and “Thatcherism” in an attempt to control the supply of money and inflation specifically.

Think and act life-long

The advantage of standing back and considering a long term approach is that the short-term volatility of a year or even a decade reinforces the rarely practiced investor skills of discipline and patience.

If you are interested in Secret Cinema, here’s the promotional trailer. Click here for the link to their website, where you can find out about many of their immersive film experiences, but tell no one…

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Remembering Montmartre 18992023-12-01T12:18:39+00:00

Pensions: Annuities starting to improve?

Annuities starting to improve?

We appear to have witnessed a small upturn in annuity rates. In June the best open market annuity for a male aged 65, with £100,000 seeking a single life, level income with a 5 year guarantee rose to 5.35% or £5,350 in April and May the rate was 5.09%…. technically a modest increase of £260 a year in this example, but equivalent to an increase of 5.1% (Ok it is starting from a very low point).

Why?

Well, gilt yields have increased modestly too, these essentially drive annuity rates, along with mortality rates (as well as other health and geographic factors). The 15 year gilt yield bottomed at 1.76% in February this year, but has slowing started to increase. All this suggests a possible interest rate rise is probably coming.

Back in the day…

I wonder what your feelings are to this news. In October 1990 the same £100,000 for a 65-year-old male, also buying a single-life level annuity with a 5 year guarantee would have received an annuity rate of 15.64% or £15,640 a year (nearly three times as much). At the time the 15 year gilt yield was 11.74%. Gilt yields have historically always been less than annuity rates, tracking a very similar path but 2-3% less.

Of course to buy an annuity in October 1990 you would be born in 1925, the year Clara Bow starred in “The Plastic Age” and you would now be 89. Most men born in 1925 do not live to 89, (and some may have fought in WW2… just, being 20 when it ended) but for those that have survived until 2015 the average man would live another 4.32 years according to the ONS. Some will obviously live longer, some less (hence it being an average figure). If you are lucky enough to have a 15.64% annuity rate that started in October 1990 you would have already had £400,384 by the end of June 2015 from your £100,000. Living until the average 93.3 would provide a total income of £458,252… which really isn’t too bad is it.

What about inflation?

Since 1990 until the end of last year (2014) the average rate of RPI was 3.1%. As a result anyone with a level annuity has seen the effective value reduce by 3.1% a year (assuming that you believe the RPI data and buy the same goods and services – which is a significant point).  Of course £15,640 today is £15,640, but if we back date this to 1990, its worth the equivalent of £32,746, in other words a little more than twice as much…. or to put it another way £15,640 is worth about half what it was worth in the space of about 25 years.

Planning your retirement income

If only life were as simple as buying the best deals. In practice planning your retirement income is a fairly involved task, there are lots of choices – loads in fact. How much income you need and your thoughts about inflation are part of the discussion. The new pension freedoms make this a more valuable discussion than simply having to buy an income and living with the consequences, the downside is that greater choice, brings greater complexity and possibility.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Pensions: Annuities starting to improve?2023-12-01T12:40:16+00:00

Inflation rate now 1%

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-bloggerInflation rate now 1%

Today, the ONS revealed that the inflation rate has fallen to 1.00%. On the one hand this appears to be good news – prices are not rising rapidly so we dont have to spend quite as much paying for goods and services. On the other hand there are some negative issues with this too. Firstly, whatever any Government says, inflation effectively devalues and reduces debt in real terms, so a degree of inflation for any economy carrying huge national debts (like ours) is actually rather a helpful tool. Secondly low inflation means that Government doesn’t have to worry too much about price rises and attempting to offset this with tempting offers not to spend (i.e. increasing interest rates which encourages saving rather than spending). So low inflation would suggest further long-term low rates of interest, which will displease anyone with cash in the bank using it to provide income.High cost of living

The main causes of the reduction in CPI (Consumer Price Index) are described by ONS as falls in transport costs (fuel, air transport and second hand cars). A little delving into the data reveals that food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased by 1.7%, clothing by -0.2%, transport by -0.2% and thet delightful category “miscellaneous” decreased  by -0.8%, all essentially deflation. However costs rose 4.0% for alcoholic beverages, 3.3% for electricity, water and gas, 2.0% for health, 2.4% for restaurants and hotels. Education costs rose 10%… which I assume consists in part of University costs. So your personal rate of inflation will rather depend on what you spend your money on. If you wish to delve more deeply into statistics, here is the official excel spreadsheet link.

Personally, I would be less inclinded to reply on national statisitics for your personal financial planning. It is not that I don’t trust the figures, it is simply that they include many things that you may not buy regularly. The weighting of the “basket” of goods and services is defined by others and when planning your own finances, it is much more sensible to consider how relevant it is that education costs, new or second hand cars are as part of your normal budget…. perhaps not much, so peak at the tables may provide clues to your own personal CPI.

Dominic Thomas

Inflation rate now 1%2023-12-01T12:39:45+00:00

What is the best way to save for retirement? Part 6

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-top-bannerPart 6 in the series “What is the best way to save for retirement?”

Inflation – Power to the people?RadioTimes1975

Inflation is probably the most underestimated factor within finance and economics. It has a massive impact on what you really need to do and frankly drives the need to ensure that your assets increase in-line with or preferably above the rate of inflation. This sounds easy, but it isn’t. You know all about inflation as it is, I don’t need to explain much. All I need do is ask you to remember going to the sweet shop and what you used to be able to buy, or perhaps how much you bought your first home for.

We forget what we don’t see

Inflation at the moment is historically low, despite what the media and politicians may suggest it is low. In fact ONS statistics reveal that the annual rate of RPI (retail price inflation) has not been above 5% since 1990. That’s now 24 years ago. It has varied since then between 0.7%-4.5%. This is why so few of us really give much thought to the impact of inflation. However, the longer term average rate of RPI since 1948 has been 5.5% and ranged between 2.9%-6.3% as a long term annual average. This was largely due to high levels of inflation in the 1970’s (24.9% in 1975) when we had a decade of high inflation rates, often forgotten, but which in turn led to tighter monetary control introduced as “Thatcherism”.

Size matters after all

My figures from the previous posts about the size of pot you need are therefore somewhat off. Why? Well because I suggested a target income of £20,000 a year from the age of 65, assuming a starting age of 35. I did this deliberately. Investors get really quite distressed by “real figures” the numbers invariably look too big and too terrifying. Here’s what I mean.

Warning: Explicit Information

£20,000 inflated at 3% a year for 30 years becomes £48,545. This is the same amount in real terms (if inflation runs at 3%). So I hope that you are sitting down. Rather than needing a pot of £500,000 to pay £20,000 a year (4% annuity) you really need £1,213,625 in real money. Yes that’s £1.2million. Rather than investing £305.69 a month (increasing by 3% a year) you actually need to invest £741.98 a month – more than double. You are no richer in reality; it’s just that inflation has been properly taken into account. The same facts are accurate, but the amount you really need to invest is considerably more.

Is time is on your side?

If you are rather closer to 65, say you are 50, you still have 15 years of inflation on £20,000 a year which becomes £31,160… worth the same amount… penny drops (literally) on the reason why I asked you to recall the childhood trip to the sweet shop. So in this example, a 4% annuity to provide £31,160 needs a fund of £779,000. You have 15 years to achieve this amount, hopefully you have made a start.

What about that buy to let property purchase idea?

So let’s turn to the property purchase option if you recall it. I suggested saving for 10 years for a deposit. Well starting with the end in mind we used a 5% rental yield. This would need to be £48,545 in 30 years time, so the property value would therefore need to be £970,900. So if property prices rise by inflation (3%) then you would need to be buying a property for roughly £400,000 and a 20% deposit would be £80,000 saved over the first 10 years, so rather than saving £214.71 a month, you really need to save around £450 a month (increasing by 3% each year for 10 years) and taking on a commercial mortgage for £320,000 – that’s quite a lot of debt.

Is it real?

The problem with real numbers is that they are pretty alarming. In reality you will hopefully have various sources of income for your retirement, hopefully including the State Pension. However the key issues are how well your portfolio performs and it will rise and fall in value which can be concerning. So its important that you consider the inflation adjusted or “real” returns. To give an example, the FTSE AllShare Index has averaged 5.9%pa above inflation since 1956. The average rate of inflation over the same period was 5.6% – so the actual FTSE AllShare return was 5.6%+5.9% = 11.5%. Since 1991 (to end of 2012) inflation has been 3% and FTSE AllShare real return 5.7% = actual returns of 8.7% but what you will notice is that the real return is pretty similar (over the longer term) at about 5.6% but not in the short term!

A suitable portfolio and strategy

Its important to get your investments right as in practice most people cannot stomach the volatility within shares. So you wouldn’t have all of your portfolio in shares, you would typically have some in Bonds and perhaps a bit in cash, thereby reducing but protecting the returns. Getting this balance right is not as simple as picking funds or using some sort of off the shelf “model” it needs to be thought through carefully…. Which is what I help clients do.

Its about your lifestyle, not the money

It goes without saying that £20,000 is not regarded as “a lot of money” by some people. In fact, £20,000 is a fair bit less than the average wage. However, great financial planning is not about value judgements about what is and what is not a small or large amount. No, its all about helping you to get clear about the lifestyle you want and what you need to do to achieve it, if that is possible, when considering your available resources, your appetite for and ability to take risk. When they say time is money, it is perhaps most pertinent in relation to inflation.

Was this helpful? Just plain scary? Too much? What questions do you now have? Email me or post a comment. Tomorrow I will conclude by providing some pointers to what I mean by “lifestyle”. Thanks for reading and here’s something you may remember from the 1970’s.

Dominic Thomas: Solomons IFA

What is the best way to save for retirement? Part 62023-12-01T12:38:54+00:00

It happened on the way to Essex (warning: dangerous information)

 I was in the car, on the way to a client listening to the radio. Possibly I should have stuck with my own music, but decided to listen to some “news”. It was Thursday (yesterday) and the media was agitated about pension charges. The panel discussion was about as badly informed as it gets and if this was designed to reduce or remove confusion about pensions, then it failed spectacularly even on explaining the difference between a Defined Benefit and a Defined Contribution pension and proving the adage “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”. Why a sensible IFA wasn’t asked to speak I have no dangerous-to-knowidea. So I had better explain.

Firstly there are broadly two types of pension. A Defined Benefit, so called because it defines what you will get. More commonly known as a final salary scheme. This sort of pension is based entirely on your service and your final salary. Each year of service in such a scheme is built up at the rate of a fraction each each. So take a doctor or nurse, 1/80th each year. So a doctor or teacher that works for 30 years, the sum is 30/80ths (37.5%) of their final salary = annual pension (for life). Ok these schemes are changing, but the principles are remaining pretty much the same.

The other type of pension is an investment based pension. If you are employed and in such a scheme it is often called a defined contribution scheme… it won’t surprise you to learn that it is aptly named, because the contribution (the amount paid in by you and/or the employer)  is defined – eg 5% of salary. However as its just an investment, the value of the pot will change… daily. So the value you end up with is based on what the pot is worth.

The row is over the charges applied to investment based schemes and whether they actually offer value for money as a result. A lot of hot air on the radio resulted in my exasperation fogging my windscreen, not a good idea on the M25 when it is grey and wet. There were a lot of inaccurate statements and very little placed into a context. So at the risk of boring you, I will attempt to do so.

Back in the 1980’s investment based pensions began to take the place of final salary schemes. Why? because of the liberated stock market (big bang) and a desire for people like you and I to capitalise on capitalism. There was also a growing (albeit muted) appreciation that people are living longer and therefore the old style final salary pensions were going to have to pay out for longer, costing employers a lot more money. Divorce rates were also rising, meaning that the spouses (and ex-spouses benefits) might also last a very long time. The rise of retail investment funds (Unit Trusts) which only began life in 1931 (thanks to M&G)  became more widely available. Pension companies (a considerable number back then) ran their own investment funds using their own fund managers. Financial advisers were largely sales people that worked for pension providers. They were paid to sell pensions (and other products) from commission in the same way that pretty much every other type of selling works… the more you sell the more you earn (as a salesman/person)

Now you and I might think it a pretty bad idea that people are paid a commission to sell financial products. The advantage of hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t it. However, most people, even in 2013, do not wake up and think that they should start a pension, or take out life assurance and sadly some people (most) need to be “sold” the wisdom of doing so (unless it isn’t appropriate for them = very few people). So “advisers” needed an incentive to incentivise the public. Yes it was a silly system, but in January it all changed. Every adviser must charge fees – properly. Surprisingly people are not jumping up and down with enthusiasm about this (on both “sides”).

Taking a step back in time, commission was paid based on the products type, the premium and the term of the “policy”… more for more. Then factor in some pension companies thought that they could offer a bit more for the “same thing” .  This led to bias (you are not surprised). Bias between financial product and also financial provider. Simple example… you have £300 a  month to invest. You could do so into a variety of “products” a pension, an endowment or a PEP (old form of ISA). The commission might range from £5,000 to £9 for a PEP.

Eh? well endowments paid very large commissions, they were generally 25 year policies and if I recall paid more than a pension. A pension though has tax relief but couldn’t be touched until 50 (back then) most though retired at 65, an extra 15 years on the policy term (commission is related to policy term too). A PEP, well it doesn’t have a term, its not a policy. It was a single investment of £300 that happened to recur. 3% of £300 is £9… each month. Not many advisers were going to advise a PEP not because they thought it was bad, but you would have to sell a lot of them to make a living. Other products though were “contracts” so you were agreeing to pay for 25 years. The product provider (names you know and possibly loathe for a variety of reasons) had a separate agreement with the adviser (well the adviser firm). Rather than pay £9 a month, they paid it upfront (£9x12monthsx25years = £2,700) for example. How? (with only £300 a month going into the pot)… it would surely take 9 months before £2,700 was even in the pot right? Well thats where some very “clever” accounting and charges and types of units comes into play. The details varied from provider to provider, making it hard for even good advisers to accurately compare one with another. In short, the commission was really a loan, if the investor (you) reduced or stopped paying, the commission loan would have to be back in full or in part.

This approach led to two key things. Firstly, people took out policies that they didn’t need or couldn’t afford. As a result advisers had to pay back commissions, invariably leading to a very high rate of staff turnover. Secondly there was an obvious pressure to sell, sell, sell… which meant a focus on new business and not servicing existing clients. The regulation at the time was as divided as the industry, independent advisers regulated by FIMBRA and Tied advisers by LAUTRO. The latter working for the insurance company, the former doing your shopping. However, even being independent did not prevent bias between solution (product) and provider selected. So in 1995… that’s 18 years ago!  commission disclosure was introduced and at around the same time a single regulator was introduced (the Personal Investment Authority – PIA). You (and the adviser) could both see what the adviser would be paid. However both relied on standard projected rates of returns to work out which provider was cheaper than the other. Still smoke and mirrors, but in all honesty, nothing to do with the advisers.

Stay, with me…if you can. The regulator then decided that advisers should write proper reports, “reasons why letters” and also provide better data about who they were placing business with. The profession of advice began to evolve (slowly catching up with the IFP Institute of Financial Planning, born in the UK in 1984).  The PIA became the FSA in 2001 and with it decided to end polarisation (tied/IFA) and added a third option “multi-tied” which confused things even more and enabled certain high street Banks to give the impression that they weren’t only peddling their own stuff. However to be independent, you had to at least offer clients the option of paying a fee rather than a commission. In January 2013, advisers were to be defined as either Independent or restricted and with both options, if you are arranging any form of investment, a fee must be agreed and paid – not a commission. Hooray, we finally got there and with another version of regulation – the FCA. In practice the regulator has said, your advice must not be biased and your client must agree the amount they pay for it. The results are yet to be seen, but in reality, most people cannot or will not pay for financial advice, because most people’s experience has been bad, sold duff products, that didn’t deliver and weren’t serviced.

The role of the adviser has altered dramatically, for all but the dinosaurs or stupid. A financial adviser is ADVISING you what you should do. A good adviser will be doing proper cash-flow planning, working with you on your actual goals and figuring out what you need to do to get there. A great adviser will also be helping you to assess risk and the returns you need, adjusting your portfolio and minimising the number of bad decisions you would otherwise make. A brilliant adviser will also keep you disciplined and focussed on what your goals are and help you avoid the 98% of the financial media that is a complete red-herring to your goals and life story. These people tend to call themselves financial planners, wanting to emphasise the planning work and disassociate themselves from selling products.

In short the skill set has evolved. You wouldn’t believe the level of research that is done these days. This is possible because of better technology and frankly better skills and a much better context. The truth, as painful and sad as it may be is that we have all messed this up at some point. Investors in believing in “free advice” and advisers in not being clear that it wasn’t, perhaps afraid to be. The product providers are guilty of making highly complex charging structures in order to pay for sales, and they have also effectively bought and bribed business. The fund management industry has overcharged and underperformed, manipulated data and set in motion a system that rewards big bets. The regulator has invariably focussed on the wrong things and hasn’t evolved as quickly to cope with some very complex financial instruments. In fairness though, it has had to take on more and more – now it is also taking on regulation of consumer credit – everything from a washing machines to a Ferrari (or Aston to Zanussi). However, the myth that is still perpetuated is that investing is easy and it is cheap. It is neither. I don’t care what massive “discount brokers” say or “money saving experts” they have all come from the same place and are focussing on the wrong things.

So (if you are still with me) back to the radio show. Statements about charges on pensions are very flawed, as flawed and silly as the charging structures themselves. Old style pensions were very pricey by today’s standards. Sometimes it is worth getting out of them, sometimes it isn’t. This needs careful consideration. Suggesting that 25% of a fund will be wiped out by charges is a foolish thing to say. It won’t, because you cannot invest for free. The charges are projections about a future that will not even happen. Returns are unknown. You are unlikely to have the same investment in 30 years time that you have now. The real menaces to investors are these:

1. Not reviewing your portfolio at least annually (and not being disciplined)

2. Not having clearly defined goals and objectives

3. Not assessing your attitude to risk and ability to cope with market volatility and therefore figuring out what returns you can accept and therefore what it will produce.

4. Running out of time, or money.

5. Not having a proper financial plan, that tells you when you have reached your goal and have “enough” (by your definition of “enough”)

6. The utter rubbish talked,written, recorded,filmed about money and investing

7. What the FTSE does is largely irrelevant to you

8. Government policy that messes with and creates a tax regime so complex that you need to pay an expert’s expert to decipher it.

9. Inflation, inflation, inflation, inflation…

10. The myth that you can get something for nothing, falling for the latest investment fad or fear.

You can have a successful investing experience, but you also need to be realistic. There are, and always have been some good advisers, some good fund managers, some good product providers and some good regulation. Life is not as binary as many would like to suggest. Over the years I have met some thoroughly decent people from all these camps. I have met advisers that I would trust with my own money – or my widows/children’s.

What’s more, this is not new. I set up my firm 14 years ago. I created a product neutral playing field, charging the same fee structure for investing in any form, in any product. I removed commission from new protection policies (which by the way is still available to advisers). I began to develop a proper investment philosophy and service and gradually began to use proper cash-flow planning. I have evolved, grown and learned. I made mistakes along the way, taking too long to improve in some areas and doing others too soon. That’s life. However I have remained consistent to the notion that my job is to improve my clients position, not make it worse. My long-term interests are best served by serving yours. Yes the financial services industry has a lot to answer for, it is miles from perfect.

One final point, here in Britain we seem to think that someone else will pay, that things are actually without cost. The very real and difficult truth is that we don’t really want to acknowledge that things have a price. Whether this is social security, care of the elderly, good education, quality teachers, good government, protecting children on the internet, a watchdog for the police, media, government, NHS, utility companies, stock market, financial advisers…or helping refugees and decommissioning weapons. Everything has a price and pretending that it doesn’t or it can be cheap is… well its like that big river in Egypt…. denial.

Footnote: By the way, the regulator does not think investors are capable of working out charges in a percentage format. They want charges expressed in monetary terms. So what hope do we have if people cannot even calculate what 1% is?

Dominic Thomas – Solomons IFA

It happened on the way to Essex (warning: dangerous information)2023-12-01T12:23:53+00:00

Cash ISA rates

It has been a while since I updated information about various deposit rates. I’m providing a list here of some of the top rates available. This is not advice, just a list. Importantly with cash accounts the FSCS only cover up to £85,000 per person per bank and be warned that this really means per banking license. Many banks (and building societies) share the same banking license due to mergers. The table below shows instant access deposit accounts, then fixed and variable rate Cash ISAs.

INSTANT ACCESS  Best online  West Bromwich BS 2.30%
 Best High Street Bank  Virgin Money 2.00%
 Best Building Society  West Bromwich BS 2.26%
FIXED RATE CASH ISA  Best online  NatWest 2.30% 3 year fixed
 Best High Street Bank  Santander 2.50% 2 year fixed
 Best Building Society  Derbyshire BS 2.25% 2 year fixed
VARIABLE RATE CASH ISA  Best online  Monmouthshire BS 2.50% 30 day notice
 Best High Street Bank  Virgin Money 2.00%
 Best Building Society  Earl Shilton BS 2.70% 90 day notice

So it is important that this is checked carefully. Please also note that I am generally fairly suspicious of any bank or building society offering particularly high rates, this suggests that they need your money rather more than other banks do and this is generally not a good prospect.

Quite obviously interest rates are pretty dreadful. As RPI is currently 3.1% and CPI is now 2.7% (according to ONS figures) the above all represent below inflation rates. This means that your money devalues in real terms. In plain English – the money in your pocket is worth less due to inflation. Here is a good short video from the Bank of England about inflation with some useful historical reminders. Note that as this is a Bank of England video, whether or not the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) has been successful or not is probably best judged by others. At the moment the Bank of England base rate is 0.50%.

Cash ISA rates2023-12-01T12:23:25+00:00
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