When did Bringing Up Baby get political?

I was intrigued by a headline in the New Scientist “The Real Reason Birth Rates Are Declining Worldwide”. We are all aware that this has become a rather politicised topic, particularly amongst the right wing, who when pushed want to tax women who don’t have children and make it harder for mothers to work, instead staying at home to raise the children. A return to the archetypal post-war era and infused with regressive politics, religious ‘doctrines’ and patriarchy, all dressed up as “traditional family values”.

The declining birth rate is an important issue in the context of a world population approaching 8.3 billion. As populations age, the theory is that elderly people need more care and medical help, which is increasingly expensive and invariably paid by the State (taxpayers). This impacts Government tax policy and planning. The increase in life expectancy places further pressure on the durability of State pensions, which whilst to some extent paid for whilst working, are generally paid from current taxes, not previous ones. Whilst your State Pension is a record of your National Insurance contributions, that is all it is, there is no pot of savings, merely an account of what you paid and the theory of what you are entitled to. An ageing population also means reduced available housing stock.

These issues have an impact on us all, but particularly on younger people who struggle to find work well paid enough to get themselves onto the property ladder. Unlike most of us, they also had to take on student loans to get a Degree (or two) which increases their personal tax rate by 9%. These very real and practical challenges mean that notions of starting a family often make little financial sense, but it’s dangerous to make too many generalisations. The reasons behind the delay are more nuanced, according to Paula Sheppard (lecturer in Evolutionary Anthropology) from her research at Oxford University.

Global birth rates were 5.1 in the 1960s but have fallen dramatically to around 2.3 today. In Europe it is much lower, at 1.4 to 1.6, even lower in Japan (1.2) and South Korea (0.75). The required ‘replacement rate’ is 2.1 babies per woman.

Sheppard’s research poses the question, “why are people deferring having children?” we may all be able to cite plenty of reasons, but this is research, evidence and data on a grand scale and then subject to interrogation, nuance and insight.

It would seem that much of the research to date leads to the need for secure relationships, University educated women tend to want their partner to be more hands on in the joint care of children and to have a degree of financial security. This cuts to the rub of that “work/life balance” thing, a terrible phrase and somewhat lacking meaning. However in essence, this is about the need for flexible work for both parents. For others housing, or more accurately, good housing in a community with good schools is important.

It is the full time job of politicians, particularly the nasty ones, to conflate these issues rather than consider them methodically. Pointing at problems and blaming it all on the changes in society since the war. The world has moved on, sadly a lot of people have not. Change is invariably frightening and used as a tool to elicit your vote.

What Sheppard points out in her piece in NS, is that predictions from data are invariably fraught with problems. Fertility rates had been ‘worryingly’ low before WW2, we then had the unpredictable ‘baby boom’.

What remains clear is that people will continue to defer having children whilst housing and finances remain substantial challenges.

For your amusement – the trailer for the film Nine Months (1995) Directed by Chris Columbus starring Hugh Grant and Julianne Moore. The actors were both 34 at the time of filming.

References:

The Qualitative Research (published September 2022):  https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0760/11/9/409

Paula Sheppard: https://sites.google.com/site/paulajsheppard/home

New Scientist: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2516629-the-real-reasons-birth-rates-are-declining-worldwide/

Global fertility rates: https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

World Data Bank: Global Fertility Rates: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

UN Global Fertility Rate Report 2024: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2025_wfr_2024_final.pdf

World Population – visualising the data: https://worldpopulationreview.com/

Age of the first time buyer in the UK: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/housing/owning-and-renting/age-of-first-time-buyers/latest/

Land Registry data on first time buyer purchase price: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2025

Your National Insurance Record: https://www.gov.uk/check-national-insurance-record