Whatever He Touches…

At about this time a year ago, we witnessed yet another deranged rant about geopolitics from the supreme leader of the chronically stupid, today we are again looking for answers to the question – how come he’s not in prison yet? I believe this is due to the delusional ideology of compliance and submission, and the bizarre belief that a job title commands respect rather than having any relationship to who is in the job.

Trump is, as we know, once again typing with caps lock on, telling the world how it should be (according to him) yet he lacks even a modicum of historical understanding. People are being deliberately killed for nothing that they have done. Our prices rise, our costs soar, yet markets fall (companies should be making more money from limited supply if economic theory is to believed). That is because markets respond to uncertainty, which they do not like at all. A deranged world leader, surrounded by fools and lacking any coherent plan is precisely what markets deride.

Yet our ‘traditional’ ‘conservative’ media and political parties seem equally as feckless to recognise that there never was a special relationship and the only relationship that Trump has truly cared about is that of his personal balance sheet. A man so corrupt and undeniably unfit for Government, that every sane person (whom he calls woke, radical left scum) is deemed a communist for their dissent and lack of support to his incredibly feeble and fragile ego.

So here is the news you don’t want to hear, but need to. Markets will recover, I would prefer it was quickly, but that would mean ending Trump’s time in office.  We will have some pain, particularly those who have had gains which are now temporarily wiped away. This is a feature of markets not a bug. It is a reminder that long-term investors need patience and grit when things get tough, as they often do.

However, markets don’t tell the story of human life, they tell the story of corporations. The gloss of shiny logos and marketing materials never conveys the price that people have paid for their ‘success’. We get to participate in it, only by owning a tiny fraction.

We can pretend that the system is fair, it isn’t. It doesn’t reward hard work, it rewards patience and companies that endure, often by taking advantage, not necessarily by being better or brilliant, but by having deeper pockets and the ability to withstand pressure – like coal or oil; survivors of chemistry, time and pressure.

Thankfully your financial plan has this volatility built into it. We don’t pretend that the system is fair, the best we can do is help you embed your values into your plan, knowing how much is enough to give you a lifestyle that will hopefully endure.

The typical bear market (when a market falls 20% to 25% or more) typically lasts 18 months, there have been longer periods and shorter ones. Here are two charts produced by Timeline that show bull and bear markets over the last 100 years.

To put this in a table format see the table below. Please ask me for these if you wish to drill into the detail, but frankly the picture tells its own story. Remember we are not trying to time the market, we have to live with the reality that it is time IN the market that delivers the long-term results which we need. I wish there was an easier way, but there is no evidence to counter this over the long-term. If I were a betting man, which I am not, I would wager that most people will focus on the losses. It seems that we humans are programmed to be self-defeating.

If you sense that I am somewhat livid about the constant pretending that “this is all ok” you have read between the lines and most of the words properly. There is nothing good about the deranged world leaders that we currently have. There always seems to be money for wars and rarely enough for education, wellbeing, healthcare and wealth creation.

References:

DJ Trump criminal charges: https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/trumps-91-criminal-charges-and-where-they-stand/

Pardons granted by DJTrump to convicted people, the common thread is fraud: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-grants-president-donald-j-trump-2025-present

Lamentably out of date: DJTrump called for his dissenters to be shot: https://www.axios.com/2022/05/02/trump-call-violence-presidency

The Special Relationship, no let’s call it coercive: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/a-special-relationship-no-lets-call

DJTrump’s War: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/trumps-iran-war-is-pushing-the-post-war-international-order-to-breaking-point/

How Coal is formed: https://www.ucs.org/resources/how-coal-works

Vanguard: Bull and Bear Markets over time: https://www.vanguard.co.uk/content/dam/intl/europe/documents/en/bear-and-bull-chart-uk-en.pdf

A video about bear and bull markets by JP Morgan that looks like it was put together by a pupil doing a bring your kids to work day. https://www.jpmorgan.com/videos/unpacked-explainer-videos/defining-bull-and-bear-markets

A brief guide to the history of the Persian gulf: https://www.iransafar.co/persian-gulf-history-facts/

Myth: Midas https://www.greeka.com/greece-myths/king-midas/