TODAY’S BLOG

THE PERFECT MARKET TIMING?

We all know that Brexit has caused great division and frustration, whichever side of the “argument” that you are on. It has resulted in many people delaying decisions, attempting to time the market right. Many people are putting off large purchases until there is greater clarity about the future.

This is true too of many investors. One of the great benefits of a democracy is that we can have access to information about markets. However, this is invariably used very poorly. Investors (professional and “amateur”) attempt to invest during the ideal period and of course sell their investment at an equally ideal time. This strategy may work on occasion but is impossible to repeat in any sustainable way.

Let us look at the US experience. Why? Because the US market is about 54% of the global stock market by value. It is a mature market and a well-regulated one. JP Morgan have produced a great graphic about the flows or money in and out of funds. The blue spikes represent money moving into investments (above the line) and out of them (below). These are net inflows (or outflows).

JPMorgan research Market Timing US

The market falls, investors run

They (JP Morgan) then overlaid the US S&P 500 index. The result is startling. As markets fell, investors bailed out. Most money was taken out of funds at the bottom of market “crashes”. Most investments tend to be made at the market peaks. Investors are quite literally doing the opposite of what they have been told. They buy high and sell low. They know that they shouldn’t do this, but they cannot help themselves because of fear about the future.

Here is the newsflash. When markets crash, the media is full of disaster stories, this invokes a sense of dread and fear, which investors take as a call to get out of the market, sell, sell, sell… Once the crash is over investors return, usually once most of the gains have already been achieved.

A fantastic way to ruin

I can think of few better ways to reduce your wealth and increase the likelihood of self-imposed poverty. Yet this approach will happen this year and the next and probably for the rest of our lifetimes.

Your future is way too important to muck around trying to be an investment genius. The investment geniuses aren’t even able to consistently achieve outperformance. Many end up simply taking bigger bets and gambling with higher sums – just ask investors how happy they are with the genius of Mr Woodford about their holdings now.

It does not have to be like this!

It does not have to be like this. You can accept the reality that in life some things you simply cannot control. The markets and the returns from them cannot be controlled by you (or me). We simply must embrace reality, look to the real data and plan appropriately. We help you take the market return from the assets you invest in. Cost effectively. We take a long-term view. I mean decades long, because that is how long your money will remain invested, providing a lifetime of income to you and those you hold dear.

Don’t play the fools game. Get over the illusion of perfection and stop procrastinating. Now is the time, always. Get in touch to get yourself on track.

Call me on 020 8542 8084 or email me.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Bakery, 2D Edna Road, Raynes Park, London, SW20 8BT

info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

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GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Bakery, 2D Edna Road, Raynes Park, London, SW20 8BT

info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

SOLOMON’S FINANCIAL PLANNING APP

Our free powerful new Finance & Tax app.
To get started download and use password – solomons

   

WHAT WE’RE ALL ABOUT

If you would like a no-nonsense one page document explaining what financial planning is all about please enter your email here.

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