Four Years for What?

Dominic Thomas
Feb 2026 • 2 min read

Four Years for What?

It has been four years since Putin sent the Russian army to invade Ukraine. The world paused and implemented sanctions, forcing up the price of gas, fertilizer and oil. Supply chains have struggled and added to inflationary pressures, the West has funded the Ukrainian resistance in the belief that this is a line which we cannot allow a despot to cross for fear of escalation, which threatens NATO nations and ultimately our own freedom.

Thousands have lost their lives, the Russian population which is typically around 146m has seen many of its younger population reluctantly conscripted into the fight. Ukraine with a population of something like 37m is far smaller but evidently very determined under the leadership of Volodymyr Zelensky since 2019. Most would be quick to point to his good leadership, Trump was quick to be Trump (see the video for yourself – linked at the bottom).

The war is dominated by the use of drones, which seems straight out of a sci-fi film. Money normally generated by Russia for energy has fallen by around 27% since the invasion, this revenue props up the Russian armed forces. Russian crude oil finds its way to Turkey, China and India often via tankers that aren’t insured (according to Reuters).

As of now, Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine and continues to bombard her cities. There are approaching 3.7million internally displaced Ukrainians with nearly 7million having left the country, and over 53,000 casualties. It is estimated that 12.7million need humanitarian help.

Sadly there does not seem to be any obvious end to the war, despite over 1.3m Russian casualties and perhaps as many as 325,000 killed. The largest number of deaths in European war since WW2. The Russian economy is barely moving with GDP of 0.6%, despite statements to the contrary, the Russian invasion isn’t going well, and certainly wasn’t the quick military exercise that Putin expected. Ukraine has lost around 140,000.

We cannot control despots but we can support a nation’s independence and stand against a despot. Indeed this has been in part reflected in our own energy prices. However, the price of freedom is invariably expensive and to date, none of us have paid with anything more than a higher utility bill, not our lives. What is disturbing is the sycophantic praise heaped on Putin by a particular politician in turquoise. A man who doesn’t seem to value or appreciate freedom, but admires a bully.

One of my favourite bands (U2) recently launched a new short album, “Days of Ash” as ever poignant and political (in the sense of standing up against injustice). Here is the track “Yours Eternally” from the EP with Ed Sheeran and Taras Topolia. Yes we all use the platforms we have.

References

Global Conflict Tracker: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine

Drones dominate the war: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/drones-dominate-ukraine-battlefield-four-years-into-fighting-2026-02-24/

Centre for Strategic and International Studies – data: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

U2: Days of Ash: https://www.u2.com/news/title/u2–days-of-ash-new-ep-out-now

The suits in the White House “press conference” where you can witness the ineptitude of the current US administration https://youtu.be/z2s2pogllis?si=WRRzwAuo0GMt5M1W

BACK TO ALL BLOGS

Four Years for What?Jemima Thomas2026-02-25T09:21:14+00:00

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE CRISIS

TODAY’S BLOG

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE

The depressing news that Russia has invaded Ukraine will please nobody. The tension has been building and reflecting in global prices of all assets. The value of something is always spurious. The stock market is about as regulated and wrapped in red tape as it is possible to be, constantly monitored around the world, it is arguably the purist, cleanest way to value companies and trade currency, bonds and commodities.

As a client, you have ample experience to know that markets rise and fall. The forward rise of markets is a permanent state (when considered properly) the declines are temporary. This is how things are, this is the uncomfortable truth. That means there are occasionally very large temporary falls in value… which then recover.

A loss is only created when you sell for less than you paid. If you sell holdings in a market low, you are likely to have lost money on your investment. If you wait – until you need the money, as we have carefully planned with you, then you will ride out the storm of the day.

UNKNOWN FUTURE

I do not know how the situation in Ukraine will unfold. Nobody does. I think it likely that we can all agree that world leaders don’t really seem to be very good these days, inflated egos and social media soundbites are no basis for running a country well. There are an array of reasons and motives behind the Russian aggression, maybe this has been many years in the making. A weakened EU, a divided UK (most nations now seem to be), the stalwart of Germany out of the way, a pandemic that has cost billions and an energy ‘crisis’. Opportune or designed? Or perhaps this is ‘nothing more’ than a long-held grudge about the expansion of NATO. Or perhaps this is purely about the energy supply lines that go from Russia through Belarus and Ukraine and it makes up the majority of their income from abroad (worth a glance at a piece from five years ago here). Here is an image from the Economist to provide a little illumination.

We do know that Mr Putin is certainly someone that is capable of playing the long game, unlike our own Prime Minister. Has he underestimated his opponents and the degree of international outrage? Perhaps. He probably took reassurance from Syria, Afghanistan or Yemen where the world basically made an noise and then left quickly. I have no idea, neither do you unless you are at GCHQ or MI5 or some similar organisation – and I suspect even then you are guessing.

What I can tell you is that markets will recover. Politicians do not get to shape your financial plan. It is built with market volatility in mind. Whilst we are again confounded by the folly of war by the few on the many, we can hope that this ends soon with minimal loss of life. Yet we are realists and know that egos need to be nursed into a state of calmness before aggression ends. There is much work to do, but worrying about your portfolio is not on the list. If anything, the temporary decline in value is another opportunity to buy at a discount.

We are all concerned about the lives of people in Ukraine and the surrounding region, that is an entirely proper response. But this time it’s different… well, the events maybe (though they echo history) but actually these dreadful events are sadly all too normal and familiar.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email [email protected]

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GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – [email protected] Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

Take Survey

PRIVACY POLICY | DATA PROTECTION

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE CRISISDominic2023-12-01T12:12:54+00:00

Don’t Panic! Captain Mainwaring… don’t panic!

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Don’t Panic Captain Mainwaring

I find it increasingly difficult to resist the temptation to comment on the world stock markets. The media is constantly moving from positions of fear or greed, buy or sell. This serves their purpose of having something to say and of course becomes something that they then have to continue to say for fear of not providing “the news”. Of course panic is contagious and whenever I see it, I tend to think of Corporal Jones from Dad’s Army – don’t panic Captain Mainwaring.

So what is happening? The price of oil has fallen dramatically. The Chinese economy is not growing as quickly as it was. There is nervousness about the UK leaving the EU, the possibility of a thug winning the US presidential election, perhaps forcing a showdown with anyone with different opinion. Europe has little idea about what to do with thousands fleeing war in Syria or their own ravaged economies offering few prospects of employment. Our own austerity is causing our public services significant stress and of course there is the recurring fears about viruses, war, the environment and terrorism which all play into the narrative of “its bleak”.

Fear and Greed

Shares are part, ownership of businesses. The value of which is based in part on its actual physical assets (premises, stock etc.) and part on future revenue streams (forward orders, based on data from historic orders). There is also the matter of market share, industry sector and general perception of the company. The price of shares is therefore in part objective maths, part subjective opinion.

The problem with sudden shifts in price are invariably linked to a herd mentality – playing inevitably into two camps – fear or greed.

We know this when we invest. It is not new news, but it is certainly hard to live with, particularly when the noise is very loud and the doom-sayers are everywhere.

Any real changes?

If you have genuinely altered your long-term goals and do not wish to invest ever again, you probably should rethink your entire strategy, perhaps investing is not for you. I am being serious.

However if your long term goals remain roughly the same, then the key question is has anything really changed?

Diversification

Your portfolio is split across a variety of asset classes, shares, bonds, cash and commodities. There is a global spread. You have a diversified portfolio. We have established tried and tested evidence based analysis to check that you have the right “mix” of holdings to suit your attitude to risk. To date, whilst the markets have been “disappointing” (understatement) since April 2015, the degree of “shock” is within your tolerance, but it is of course deeply unnerving, very unsatisfying and frustrating.

Time in the market not timing the market

However we are holding to the long-term principles of disciplined investing, which have been proven successful over time. This is simply part of the investment experience, albeit “painful”.

It is very tempting to think that getting out of the market now (or 12 months ago) would provide some solidity. However this is based on the notion of being able to time the market and determine opportune points to get in and out of the market (and which market). This is really therefore a double decision, when to sell and then when to buy again.

Historically, investors (professional and private) get this very wrong. Invariably they panic and sell towards or at the bottom of a market, and then decide to invest again once they are confident in the recovery (which has already happened by the time they get back “in”). This leads to further frustration and doing the exact opposite of what we all know investing is about – sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Selling holdings is the only actual way to make a loss real.

Reserve Levels

Any discussion about your financial plan has involved thinking about an appropriate amount of cash to hold on deposit – your emergency fund. You may have used some of this, you may not. It is there as a buffer, and is designed to mean that you don’t have to take money from investments when they are suffering. Perhaps some adjustments may be prudent, but this is your choice, money should serve you, not the other way around.

I am not pretending that the market turmoil is not scary. This is a normal, understandable reaction to headline news. I know of nobody that likes to lose money. Everyone wants high rewards for low risk. However, unless your circumstances have really changed, if you are at the end of your tether with the concept of “investing”, then stick to the course, taking the life-long perspective.

Pain is part of growth, falls are part of average annual returns, finance is not magic and doesn’t provide any real account of who or what you are.

We remain vigilant, we continue to work in your interests but yes, your funds have reduced in value, but we have no good reason to believe that this will be a permanent status. We do not have a crystal ball and cannot predict the future with certainty, nobody can (despite inferences by others). We are doing our best in an imperfect world. Thankfully, this is 2016 and we are not on rations or at war with the world and whilst not dismissing our troubles (which are very real) perhaps some old school laughter might help.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

Don’t Panic! Captain Mainwaring… don’t panic!Dominic2023-12-01T12:19:27+00:00