Financial Scams – Be Warned

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-blogger

Financial Scams – Be Warned

Believe it or not July 2015 is financial scam month…. given all that is going on in relation to Greece, the ECB, IMF and European Union….not to mention FIFA, perhaps the timing is perfect. Anyway, there is a whole month being dedicated to warning you about financial scams. Sadly there are a lot.

Let me be very plain. A scam works because you are caught off-guard. It is not only the “foolish” that get scammed. Anyone is a potential target. As with most deceptive crime, emphasis is placed on appearing to help you, to warn you of impending problems and to then offer what seems like a logical or sensible solution – such as withdrawing all your money from your “compromised account”. One of the most despicable crimes is to then involve you in the entrapment of the fraudster…. when actually you are simply at a deeper level of the scam.

Your telephone number is a bit like a front door key. You answer the phone, the line is open. Invariably the fraudster passes themselves off as a Bank representative or a large well-known shop and they report that your card appears to have been compromised. If they are pretending to be your Bank, it is unlikely that they reveal which “Bank” they are calling from, simply allowing your mind to fill in the gaps. If they pretend to call from a shop, well frankly you aren’t likely to be that suspicious as you are being helped and advised that fraud was committed on your card in their shop.

Open Line

Your guard is down, because you think you are being helped, it doesn’t occur to you to ask the caller to confirm YOUR name or your bank account number. The caller with mind distracted asks you to check your card… the details, is there a number on the back to call the bank? yes… ok, call them. Goodbye. But actually the fraudster is still on the open line – even if you have hung up, the line is open (a problem that telecom companies have failed to address properly). You call back, but are essentially on the same call… answered by a colleague of the fraudster or even the same one, who then simply harvests your personal information to use… name, address, account information etc.

Another scam involves a fraudster posing a police officer, who suggests that they want to entrap the criminal. S/he suggests you withdraw as much as you can from your account and send it to them for assessment or tagging, perhaps sending a “secure” delivery car to your home to collect it from you. This is a scam, you won’t see the money ever again.

I know that these things seem “obvious” but in the heat of the moment, being caught off-guard and thinking you are being helped and could also help catch the fraudster, you are simply the next victim. Here is a link to a video from the BBC about this.

What you can do

Firstly if someone calls you offering to solve a problem with your banking or IT , challenge them with the sort of questions that your Bank asks you when you phone them…. but go full hog. Do not give them your details but ask them to tell you your details (which they are highly unlikely to have). Go further by asking them to confirm the last 5 payments that you made, the amounts, dates and sources. The fraudster will quickly give up and hang up.

I have had a fraud call centre call me warning that my computers at home had a virus. I knew this was bogus, but quickly appreciated how easy it is to be duped. Normally in those circumstances they ask you to download something to your computer… which is essentially a trojan horse, tracking your banking, which of course can lie dormant for some time, so you forget all about the call and think you were helped by someone pretending to be from BT or whoever.

The 2008 film The Brothers Bloom is well worth watching to remind yourself at how skillful confidence tricksters can be and how little regard they have for the “relationships” that they create.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Investing: Greece

Solomons-financial-advisor-guest-blogger-SW

The Greferendum

We’ll know more early next week when the result of this weekend’s Greferendum is known (assuming that is, that the referendum is carried through successfully; nothing is certain). Actually, the wording of the referendum is a little, erm, tame…

‘Should the plan of the agreement be accepted, which was submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, in the Eurogroup of 25.6.2015, and comprises two parts which constitute their unified proposal? The first document is entitled Reforms For The Completion Of The Current Program And Beyond and the second Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis’.

I had expected a more direct question about euro membership. I don’t doubt that that particular question will be addressed soon but, for now, the choice is simply ‘yes’ the deal that has been offered by the troika should be accepted or ‘no’ it should not be accepted.

If a ‘yes’ vote is forthcoming I see three possibilities…

A fourth election in four years is set in motion. The current government is campaigning for a ‘no’, so a ‘yes’ vote probably undermines their legitimacy
the current government leads new negotiations and, with further concessions, secures an interim agreement as a stepping stone to the next bailout proper
the current government leads new negotiations which fail to secure an agreement; sparking another referendum (addressing euro membership much more directly) or, perhaps more likely, another general election

If, on the other hand, a ‘no’ vote wins I see two possibilities…

The current government leads new negotiations and, with no further concessions, secures an interim agreement as a stepping stone to the next bailout proper
The current government leads new negotiations which fail to secure an agreement; sparking another referendum (addressing euro membership much more directly) or, perhaps more likely, another general election.

Ultimately there’s the possibility of a Grexit either way. Clearly though, a Grexit is likely to happen much more quickly if the ‘no’ vote wins. For what it’s worth, I still think a voluntary Grexit is unlikely until the issue of euro-membership is directly addressed with the electorate. An involuntary Grexit – an expulsion from the euro-group – is the more likely scenario.

Super Mario (Draghi)

I’m not dismissive of the ‘contagion’ hypothesis. There is a real risk that discontent spreads from Greece to Portugal, Spain and Italy. And, if a crisis in the Greek mould makes it as far as Spain, it would almost certainly spell disaster. But before that happens I think we will see the European Central Bank (ECB) flex its muscles.

Remember, in July 2012, when Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, said ‘within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro… [and] believe me, it will be enough’. His statement had an incredible effect on bond yields in the euro-zone. Indeed, that statement alone was enough to limit the euro crisis and it prepared the ground for the nascent recovery we are seeing today.

Back then, the ECB was a central bank heavily constrained by an uncertain mandate. Now, senior court rulings on the legality of some of the ECB’s proposed measures (which had been subject to heavy legal scrutiny in the last three years or so) have defined and broadened the ECB’s mandate. In short, the ECB has considerably more power today than it did in 2012.

I am convinced that the ECB will indeed preserve the euro. I’m certainly not betting against it.

Implications for the stock market

Just to be clear, I’m still in accord with JP Morgan’s Stephanie Flanders on this one…

‘The key takeaway for investors is that the Greek crisis does not pose an existential threat to either the euro system or to Europe’s financial system. Ultimately we do not believe that Greece alone will be enough to put the European recovery into reverse, or that it will prevent a gradual improvement in European corporate earnings. But there is still plenty of scope for nasty surprises and renewed volatility if the Greek situation continues to deteriorate.’ (Source: JPM Market Insights, 19 June 2015).

And at the risk of repeating myself…

Back in 2011, when the euro crisis was at its peak, a Greek default would have been a catastrophe for the euro-zone. It would have spelt disaster for Europe’s banking system and various stock markets around the world would have plummeted. The same is probably not true today; a Greek default would not be a disaster either for the EU, the Eurozone or the stock market (in the long-run at least).

Of course, there is a great deal of complacency. Far too many managers and commentators are dismissive of a potential default; its eventuality would come as a shock to some and the stock market would react sharply while that complacency is washed away.

But does a Greek exit fundamentally alter the long-term potential for listed companies on the continent? How would such a happenstance irreversibly damage the likes of Daimler, Siemens, Louis Vuitton, Total, Airbus, Unilever or Heineken?

In conclusion

Investors should hold risky assets only in the proportions that they are willing and able to hold for the duration of a significant downturn. I know that is easier said than done when interest rates are as low as they are. Investors have a seemingly irresistible urge to ‘reach for yield’. But there is one thing that destroys wealth much more effectively than choosing the wrong fund here or there; investors that blindly carry risk almost always sell out at the first sign of trouble (effectively they ‘buy high and sell low’).

Steve Williams