Captain of a 737

Debbie Harris
Nov 2024 • 2 min read

Captain of a 737 (sort of) – for an hour!

In my ongoing endeavour to do new and different things this year, I recently spent an hour flying a Boeing 737 flight simulator!

My ‘children’ will tell you that I am utterly dreadful at video games as my hand-to-eye coordination is shockingly rubbish, so I went into this particular experience with the mantra “please don’t let me crash”.

Suffice to say, my visual efforts were much better than my rely-on-the-instruments efforts, but I successfully took off and landed the ‘aircraft’ which felt like a massive achievement frankly!

At the end of the session, my co-pilot (*ahem!) said that I had learned a tiny fraction of what pilots have to learn. I laughed and told him that I would not ever in a million years be able to do what they do – absolutely not my skillset!

Which reminded me that we delegate tasks to other people all the time – train drivers, mechanics, plumbers, doctors, financial planners – because they are trained to do what you cannot (or have no desire to do).

And did I crash? Well no – at least … not the airplane. The simulator software on the other hand – I managed to crash that – TWICE!

BACK TO ALL BLOGS

Captain of a 737Jemima Thomas2024-11-21T15:02:02+00:00

INFLATION, INTEREST – THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURT

TODAY’S BLOG

THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURT…

If you are a car driver as I know most of you are, the current price of petrol will almost certainly have caused a gulp of disbelief as you fill up your “pride and joy”. The rate of inflation may be a testing 9% or 10% (next release from the ONS is next week) but the price of fuel is rising much faster than that. Indeed, I have noticed the price at a station change within the space of a return trip to a local garden centre.

Today, 16th June 2022 unleaded petrol is around £1.87 a litre or £1.93 for diesel. In June 2020 it was £1.07 and £1.11 respectively. That’s an increase of 74% in a year. If only I could tell you that investments had fared as well, they haven’t. Markets have been very difficult lately, largely since November. Global equities are down 1.48% over 12 months and global bonds are down 12.01%. When the numbers go in opposite directions to our daily reality of the cost of living it becomes alarming.

I am not going to pretend to you that this is easy or that inflation will quickly disappear as the Bank of England appears to believe (returning to around 2.4% in 2024). We could be in for inflation that lasts rather longer than that. Sadly, we are in short supply of good politicians around the world, those that we have seem intent on destroying any sense of self-respect. The “unexpected” war in Ukraine is certainly lasting longer than most expected… which does leave me wondering, who on earth is doing this “expecting”? most of the hard-nosed realists I know do not have much faith in politicians to resolve much at all, other than their own salaries and second jobs.

THE JUBILEE, 1977 AND A 67% MARKET DECLINE

If the Jubilee parties didn’t remind you of 1977, the impending rail strikes and some of the economic data may soon help you to do so. Still, we have learned lessons from the past haven’t we! I imagine that you appreciate that I am being a little sarcastic. Sadly, you and I cannot control very much of what is going on. We can control how we respond. All the lessons of history are that successful investing means riding out the peaks and troughs of the global market cycles. Some of these are very deep and “hurt”. For some context, the average bear market since 1926 fell by -35% and lasted 18 months. Some were worse, some better (hence average). The worst fall was in June 1972, markets collapsed -67% and the bear market lasted 2 years 7 months. £100,000 in 1972 would have fallen to around £33,000 however for those that held their nerve that same £100,000 became £1,207,159 when considered over 154 months (12 years 10 months). That is amazing isn’t it… but so few investors had the patience, confidence or perhaps ability to stay the course. This is not easy, hindsight is easy, the present and an unknown future are “difficult” yet that is the reality of our daily lives. Complex, unknown and full of conflicting messages and competing media.

Today the Bank of England raised its base rate to 1.25%. Let me get ahead of the “news services” and spin this in different ways. Interest rates have increased 25% overnight. The highest for over a decade. This is true, but in the context of interest rates they are half as much as they were in November 2008 (3%). When I started the firm in 1999, rates were 5% (some 333% higher). When I started in this game, they were 10.88% and I have a very real experience of them at 14.88%.

Life changes, your plans may need updating, but your main priorities and principles are unlikely to alter at all. Do get in touch with me if you are concerned. As I may have said, investing is a long-term, a lifelong process. Remember your money should serve you, not the other way around.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

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INFLATION, INTEREST – THE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO HURTDominic2023-12-01T12:12:49+00:00

HOT PROPERTY?

TODAY’S BLOG

HOT PROPERTY – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

We are all aware that the world is a bit weird now. The thoughtful self-reflection that occurred during lockdown appears to have given way to fatigue, thoughtlessness and sometimes an attitude of selfishness. The UK property market continues to confound reason.

We know that during the initial lockdown, which was really the duration of the second quarter of 2020, very little happened, then gradually restrictions have lifted. One of the often-cited reflections of working from home is the need for a quiet space at home, be that a spare bedroom, study or garden shed. As people became accustomed to not commuting, many found that they are in fact rather more productive. Some have found a better balance between the professional and the personal. Many have questioned why they are paying for an expensive small home that makes commuting quicker but now find it unnecessary. Some have noted the value of community and the desire to be closer to relatives. Space is cheaper elsewhere.

We know that big cities like London were struggling to encourage people back into the office, leading to an existential threat to many supporting businesses and organisations, from cafes and restaurants to meeting venues. We are now heading into the Winter with yet another Governmental set of directives, which may or may not be helpful.

Interest rates have never been lower in living memory. If ever there was a time to borrow it is now. However, lenders are all too familiar with bad debt and worry about an economy that may experience a prolonged recession, with rising unemployment and job insecurity. The usual domino effect of recessions. This results in lenders managing their own risk, limiting who, when and why they lend. They hold the cards. We may all find money a bit tighter if taxes increase to pay for furlough and various Covid bailouts.

STAMP DUTY: GOING, GOING…

The Chancellor has tried to stimulate house sales by removing Stamp Duty on sales under £500,000 until the end of March 2021. This is a tax break that is planned to end. Some of you may remember MIRAS, another tax break which ended 20 years ago. House sales in England typically account for 85% of all house sales in the UK, forgive me, but I’m going to focus on the sales in England. The ONS records sales over £40,000. In Q2 of 2020 a provisional 131,730 homes were sold in England, a year earlier the figure was 237,870. Sales had been gradually improving since the credit crunch. Numbers had not recovered to their 2006/07 which saw 1,433,200 homes sold, that collapsed in 08/09 to just 664,250. Sales have been recovering slowly and then dented again by the Brexit vote, before reaching 1,003,060 in 18/19.

SCORES ON THE DOORS…

2020 began fairly slowly, but reflective of seasonal normality with monthly sales in the 70,000 range. April sales collapsed to 32,350 (lockdown) but by July sales had returned to winter levels of 71,190. So despite what Estate Agents may be telling you, property sales are below average, down by something like 20%. You can dress it up, but that’s the reality of completed sales. That said, according to Nationwide average prices recovered in July and increased in August by 3.7%. They also note that the 2010s has been the weakest decade for property prices up 33% over the decade compared to 180% in the 1980s. Low interest rates and the credit crunch being the suggested main factors.

YOU HAVE MORE MONEY? LET ME SHOW YOU…

Some warn that the reduced stamp duty tax will not be passed on, as sellers push prices to cover their own stamp duty on property over £500,000. In short, the young are paying above the odds. Some expect prices to fall as demand slows in April next year when the stamp duty break ends. Then there is Brexit, which is now a sub-heading of the national conscience, but it would appear that the Government have little real idea if agreement can be reached.

This might prompt a reduction in prices (nobody knows) which tends to happen when a tax advantage ends and a recession is happening. So those thinking of buying this autumn or winter that are looking at property priced under £500,000 face the increased risk of buying at a peak value and a collapse. They have to counter this with the benefit of stamp duty savings. A property valued at say £400,000 currently has no stamp duty, from April such a sale price would result in £10,000 of Stamp Duty. That said, £10,000 is only 2.5% of the purchase price (£400,000) it would not be inconceivable to see prices fall by 15% (£60,000 in our example). This may wipe out your deposit and possibly mean that you have negative equity.

THE THING IS – WE DO FORGET

Turning to relatively recent property crashes, the 1990s provided some of the harshest lessons for homebuyers. The worst decade for price rises – even London only increased by 40%. Some of you may remember MIRAS, which was tax relief given to borrowers. Nigel Lawson changed the terms of MIRAS so that unmarried couples could not claim it from August 1988. He announced the changes in April 1998 which provided 4 months of “opportunity” which pushed up prices to bubbling point. When the relief was lost repayments went up. The overpriced market peaked in 1989 with an average price in London of £97,667 but then fell back to £66,573 by the end of 1992. A fall of £31,094 or more importantly 31%. When inflation is factored in, prices didn’t really recover from 1988 until 2001.

A decade later (April 1998) MIRAS was again reduced to the point of being almost worthless and finally abolished by Gordon Brown two years later in 2000. Its been 20 years since MIRAS ended. There has been some tinkering with Stamp Duty which was altered from a flat rate system to a tiered rate system from December 2014. This was done in an attempt to curb price rises particularly in London. In Q4 of 2014 the average national price was £189,002 by Q2 2020 it was £220,133 (up 16%). In London the average price was £406,730 and is now £475,448 (also up 16%). So the gap has not widened, but equally it has not shrunk (so the strategy neither worked not “failed” but it certainly didn’t change anything). The numbers are certainly larger and London remains the most expensive part of the UK.

IF IT WORKS, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL

So over the last 32 years tax changes to residential property has created a quick spike and then collapse in prices (1988-1992) and it has also effectively done nothing (2014-2020). Chancellor Rishi Sunak would be making a little history if his policy didn’t fail or do nothing of substance.

If history were to repeat itself, which let’s face it, tends to happen more as an echo than a direct repetition, then there is the prospect of a 31% fall (88-92). That would mean someone buying in 2020 for £400,000 would potentially be contemplating their home revalued at £276,000. It could be a decade before prices recover.

We have short-term memories and forget what has happened. First time buyers have no memory of a property crash, (indeed some of my detractors on social media appear to have no memory at all). Lenders are currently very reluctant to lend more than 90% and many will struggle to get a competitive loan with more than an 85% mortgage. So with our £400,000 example, that’s a deposit of £60,000 and if a third gets wiped off by 2022, the £340,000 mortgage would be higher than the value of the property (£276,000) for some time…

FORECASTS ARE NOT MY THING

The truth is we simply do not know what will happen. We do know that Brexit will happen (we do don’t we?). We know that we are in a recession. When recessions happen, jobs are lost, money is tight, homes get repossessed (1991 was the peak for repossessions). We know that interest rates are at all time lows which implies only one likely direction for the cost of borrowing (upwards). So would you buy to save £10,000 on stamp duty before March or would you wait a couple of years and either buy the same property for 30% less or simply buy a bigger place.

IN SHORT- BE PREPARED TO LIVE WITH YOUR DECISIONS

This is a gamble, I have no idea what will happen, perhaps property price rises will return to 1980s levels, but that would likely mean inflation is out of control and interest rates could be much higher than they are now (which I think is unlikely). I do not know – nobody does. We are due a correction – any sensible person knows that property in the South East is overpriced. The only consolation I can offer is that if buying, make sure you do so knowing the above and that you might be stuck for a decade. Fine if you are a young couple in a flat, but not that great if you start to have a family. Lose your job or your relationship falls apart. Perhaps “nothing” will happen. I do not know, but I’m not sure I’d bet my house on it.

SOLOMONS IFA UK AVERAGE PROPERTY PRICES 74-20

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

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HOT PROPERTY?Dominic2023-12-01T12:13:12+00:00

IN SEARCH OF ANSWERS

TODAY’S BLOG

IN SEARCH OF ANSWERS

I had the unwelcome task of writing to clients to advise that the value portfolios have fallen by over 10% since the start of 2020. The emails that I sent seemed to be well received. Today has been another very tough day for investors (and their advisers). The charts are rather frightening, this comes at a time when we are all (most of us anyway) rather anxious about the state of the world and a deep sense of unease.

So, without wishing to fudge any issues, I thought it best that I re-use the bulk of the content that I have been sending.

It is now a regulatory requirement to tell you when a portfolio falls by 10%. This is a new experience for me, despite being an adviser for several decades. I genuinely believe that this new requirement comes from well-meaning regulation, but is entirely counter-productive, because it is essentially alarmist. I will endeavour to add a little more flesh to the bones.

SHOULD YOU WORRY?

Should you worry? No; but anxiety and concern are normal responses to ‘seeing’ the value of your portfolio fall. Anxiety or fear are normal responses to ‘danger’ or bad news. We are built that way and it is why we have survived as a species for as long as we have. However, the instinct of ‘flight’ is of no use to investors. The stock markets of the world fall in value each year. I would refer you to the various articles I have written about this over the years and remind you that 1 in 4 calendar years have negative returns. This is part of ‘the norm’ and indeed we don’t get the positive returns without the negative. However yesterday’s headlines of the FTSE’s second largest fall in a single day does not really help calm nerves.

UNCERTAINTY IS NORMAL

The problem with investing is that markets are not predictable, despite appearing so. What is predictable is irrational investor behaviour. This is precisely why we ask you to complete an attitude to risk questionnaire. So that a suitable portfolio is constructed for you – one that provides the chance of delivering the returns you need whilst enabling you to sleep at night. You will have experienced similar falls in value before, but either didn’t notice, or were reassured.

WHAT IS A LOSS?

When the value of anything falls, it only impacts those selling. A crash in property prices, impacts those selling their home, most of us do not notice, although it may provide conversation around the dining table with friends or colleagues. Unlike property, the value of equities and bonds are transparently priced throughout the day in a highly regulated market. When you sell your home, frankly the price is a bit of a guess by the estate agent, surveyor and then haggled over by seller and buyer … in practice, a very small and biased market.

The key is not to panic; not to sell. You know this, but we also know it is hard to do. You know that you should sell at the top and buy at the bottom, however as humans we tend to do the exact opposite. I’m not going to pretend that this doesn’t make us all wince and wonder, but equally I will remind you to stick to your plan – yours; not those of a media which seems only intent on making you miserable.

Your portfolio is globally diversified, it is well balanced, it is low cost and it is properly reviewed. We have biases towards smaller and value equities which over time will demonstrate to be better value. There is a huge amount of research that should you wish it, I can point you to. However, I tend to think of that as my job … to help you make better decisions with money and help reduce or avoid all the daft ones.

THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH

If you are investing on a monthly basis, the fall in prices is a bit of a bonanza – because you buy more for the same money. We expect values to rise. They will; it’s just a question of when. For those who add lump sums, similarly now is essentially a discount sale that will not last.

Those who are withdrawing money have a much tougher time. The fall in prices means you sell more holdings to get the same figure out. Thereby not benefitting as much when prices rebound. They will, and you will, but not as much. In an ideal world, you will have discussed and outlined your plans for income or lump sum withdrawals and we have already factored this in. If you need to review this, then please get in touch.

DO NOT OBSESS OVER THIS

Looking at your portfolio each day will never help anyone. It will rarely provide comfort. Worry will not help you to live your life well. You have to trust that the fundamentals of investing will remain true today, next week and next year as they have done over the decades. Yes – there are ‘bad times’, but remember that market returns are positive 3 in 4 years on average, we simply don’t know the order or reason.

You are investing for decades and I have no doubt that this too will pass.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

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IN SEARCH OF ANSWERSDominic2023-12-01T12:13:22+00:00

Markets are High, the End is Nigh

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Markets are High, the End is Nigh

I have no idea why radio and TV stations broadcast the level of the FTSE with every news bulletin. It’s as though they are screaming “the end is nigh”. Think about it for a moment, what purpose does it serve? The only people that can do anything about their investments are traders – who had the information already. To my mind the only reason I can think of is so that you and I panic. The markets are high, so we panic with the good news fearing that is must be coming to an end. Alternatively, they have fallen, so the anxiety and fear is by how much and how far.

So What?

A better question might be…. So what? How does this affect me at all? Well the truth is that your investments will almost certainly be impacted, but then that’s the point of investing. The issue is really does the rise or fall play any significant part on your financial well-being. This is where proper financial planning comes in. We know that investments fall in value. We allow for it. We also know and believe that the point of investing is so that they rise, otherwise we wouldn’t bother would we!

A picture paints a thousand words

So, I thought that I would share with you an interesting graph. This shows the returns of the FTSE All-Share over the last 30 years from 1986-2016 (31 years). The grey columns show the calendar year returns. You will observe that 22 or the 31 are positive, 9 are negative. In other words, 70% of the time, calendar year returns have been positive. However, when the negative years occur, those years can see large falls, note the worst being -33% in 2008 (the credit crunch, supposedly the worst financial collapse in generations).

Let’s get Negative

Now observe the red dots. These represent the largest fall in each year. All falls must be negative to be a fall. So, every year has one. Note how these are pretty “bad” yet don’t really seem that bad when you consider the actual return over the year (grey column). Its noteworthy that the average fall in a year is -15.8% – the median (if you line up all the results, the one in the middle) is -12.6%. So, in short you should expect a fall every year of around this sort of amount. It should not be a surprise.

You probably remember the crash of October 1987… just after the hurricane that Michael Fish didn’t expect. Remember the headlines of millions wiped off the markets. True, it (the FTSE All Share) fell -37% however over the year it showed a return of +4%. Which do you remember? I’m guessing the crash… which you would certainly remember if you got in a panic and sold your holdings (when they were down)… selling in a panic or a crisis is the surest way to actually have one, but remembering your long-term financial goals and why on earth you are investing anyway is vital. That’s what we and any other decent financial planner will help with, when the crowd and the media and the market are telling you to panic, do something!… do not.

Diversify to Dampen

However, very few people have all their investments in the FTSE All Share or indeed entirely in shares (equities) most will have a portfolio that has some in low risk holdings as well, ideally the portfolio will be globally diversified across nations and asset classes. This will dampen the effects of both the rises and the falls of the markets.

The Only Timing that Matters

Trying to time the best moment to enter or exit the market is impossible to do with any repeatable success. However clearly you and your planner need to mindful (aware) of when you want to withdraw money. It’s all very well a favourable long-term average return, (or even a calendar year one) but what about when it’s a really bad year and you need the money out? Again, the truth is that any decent planner will help assess this advance. In practice it is unlikely that you would need all of your investments at the same time, but it can happen, particularly if you decide to use your entire pension fund to buy an annuity (income for life). This is why we spend a lot of time getting to understand our clients, your goals, values and aspirations – importantly when you need the money, so that that we can plan appropriately, perhaps reducing investment risk or holding more cash than you might need. Context is everything and a plan is vital. So get in touch to ensure that your investments are structured properly – for you, not for the media.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

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Markets are High, the End is NighDominic2025-01-21T15:53:26+00:00

China – 8000 miles

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China – 8,000 miles

I’m sat in the shadow of Beinn Resipol, a remote and moody monument in mountain form, close to Moidart in the Highlands of Scotland. Shanghai is around 8,000 miles away. Still, I can hear the sound of investor panic.

The following extracts from Bloomberg’s daily Economic Brief sum up what’s happening over there…

‘In the second quarter, China’s markets and economy were in a virtuous circle upward. In the third quarter, they are in a vicious spiral down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.5 percent to 3,209.9 at the close on Monday. The index is now down 37 percent from its mid-June high and below the 3,500 mark that many investors expected the government to defend.’

Furthermore…

‘All of the forces that accelerated market momentum on the way up are now working in reverse on the way down. The balance of outstanding margin loans has fallen to 1.4 trillion yuan, down from a peak of close to 2.3 trillion yuan in mid-June. The number of new trading accounts has slumped as the “greater fools” to whom speculators had hoped to offload stocks have wised up.’

I don’t doubt that some investors expected the Chinese government to defend stock prices but, for the life of me, I can’t figure out how the government could possibly succeed in so doing; I know of neither mechanism nor precedent. Of course, the government will do something. It will engage more easing – most likely in the form of reduced reserve requirements for banks – and that might go some way to settling investors. But it won’t sustain asset prices for long. And besides, the Chinese government has far larger fish to fry.

China’s economy is slowing. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it’s something of a necessity if policymakers are to be successful in re-balancing the Dragon economy toward a more sustainable model – away from debt-fuelled investment on the one hand, toward higher household spending driven by rising incomes on the other. The alternative is worse – economies with over-sized investment tend to slow too, ultimately, but in a much more dramatic fashion. And that would be a disaster for the one party, in a one-party system, whose legitimacy is founded on lifting living-standards. So, the period of transition that China faces is a very difficult one indeed. Success, if it is successful, will be hard won.

In the meantime, China’s slowdown comes at a bad time for the global economy. Brazil and Russia are in decline, so too is Japan and the euro-zone is struggling to escape the doldrums. It seems a great many investors were counting on China – which, according to the Wall St Journal, ‘accounts for 15% of global output but has contributed up to half of global growth in recent years’ – to maintain some momentum.

That was always a dangerous assumption.

Steve Williams

China – 8000 milesDominic2023-12-01T12:20:00+00:00