Picking the triple lock

At the tail end of September, Andy Burnham announced his plan to adjust the current triple lock on State Pensions from April 2030. This would bring an end to the current method of calculating annual State Pension increases, which has been in place since 2010.

What is the triple lock?

The triple lock, introduced in 2010 by the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government, has ensured that the basic State Pension and the full new State Pension increase each year by the highest of these three measures:

• Inflation
• Average earnings growth in the UK
• 2.5%

From April 2030, the plan is to introduce an “adjusted triple lock”. The average earnings measure is largely being removed, with the revised system primarily ensuring that the State Pension rises by at least inflation or 2.5% each year. Unlike the other two measures, average earnings increases will no longer be used automatically should it be the highest in a given year. Instead, earnings will help to determine whether a further increase is needed to maintain the State Pension’s value relative to wages over time.

Why has this been announced?

The primary driver behind this change is to help fund a new National Care Service. The hope is that this will make the social care system work more like the NHS, with savings from the adjusted triple lock contributing towards the cost.

The current social care system is means-tested, with an individual’s financial circumstances assessed to determine how much they must contribute towards their care. In England, the lower capital limit is currently £14,250, although the rules vary depending on the type of care and other circumstances. It is not expected that all care costs would become completely free, though the clearest commitment expressed so far has been to provide free personal care for older people, based on need rather than ability to pay.

There is still much to be ironed out regarding exactly how this might work. Andy Burnham has stated that the intention is for the National Care Service to be fully funded, without the need for additional government borrowing.

How will this impact State Pension income?

In some years, the adjusted triple lock could result in smaller State Pension increases than under the current system. Taking the most recent State Pension increase in April 2026 as an example:

• Average earnings growth was 4.8%.
• Inflation (CPI) was 3.8%.

The 4.8% earnings figure was therefore used for the annual increase. The full new State Pension rose from approximately £11,973 to £12,548 a year.

Under a system based solely on inflation or 2.5%, the increase would instead have been 3.8%, bringing the annual amount to approximately £12,428. However, the adjusted triple lock proposed for 2030 would also include a mechanism to maintain the pension’s value relative to average earnings over time, so the long-term outcome would not be quite the same as simply removing earnings growth from the calculation.

Since the triple lock was introduced in 2010, inflation and average earnings growth have each determined several annual increases, while the 2.5% minimum has been used less frequently.

Therefore, it is quite possible that inflation will become the most commonly used measure for future increases. Much will depend on how inflation and wages evolve over the coming years. The adjusted triple lock is designed to protect State Pension income against inflation while ensuring that pensioners continue to share in wider earnings growth over time, without the pension consistently growing faster than average wages.

The precise outcomes will depend on how the new system operates in practice. The intention appears to be to balance protection of income for pensioners with the need to make the State Pension system more sustainable, and to help fund the proposed National Care Service.