Q2 – 2015

The second quarter (Q2) saw the domestic equity market fall 2.8% while the market for government bonds fell 2.6% in value. A portfolio composed of 60% equities and 40% bonds finished the quarter 2.6% lower.

Index 1 year 3 years 10 years Low Point Greatest Loss
FTSE100 0.2% 9.2% 6.3% Feb 2009 -39.8%
FTSE Gilts (5-15years) 7.4% 2.1% 5.6% Dec 2013 -6.7%
60-40 Portfolio 3.2% 6.5% 6.3% Feb 2009 -20.4%
LIBOR (3 months) 0.6% 0.6% 2.3%
Consumer Price Index 0.3% 1.5% 2.5%

Taking a longer term view, and given a minimum of 7 years for investment, we look for returns from the FTSE 100 Index to lie somewhere between 6.9% and 10.1% per annum. The most recent decade (from 30 June 2005 to 30 June 2015) is characterised by a return of 6.3%, outside of the lower end of our range. That makes good sense when one considers that the starting and ending points in that period coincide with a maturing bull market in 2005 and some volatility today.

Our hypothetical 60-40 portfolio, comprising 60% in the FTSE 100 Index and 40% in the FTSE Gilts (5-15 years) Index, has gained 3.2% over the last 12 months, 6.5% p.a. in the last 3 years and 6.3% p.a. over the 10 year period. Adjusting those figures for inflation gives us a healthy set of real returns of 2.9%., 4.9% p.a., and 3.7% p.a. respectively.

Those positive inflation-adjusted returns are particularly pleasing when we consider that cash investments have, somewhat unusually, lost ground relative to inflation – a result of 6 years of unprecedented monetary easing.

The last year is characterised by a mixed set of results with the US and Japan performing strongly. Meanwhile relatively low returns have been provided by markets in Asia, Europe and developing world.

Steve Williams

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk