HIGHER OR LOWER? PLAY THE HAND YOU HAVE
Knowing this, every time this year we bear witness to the folly of making predictions. My in-box will be full of “Our Expectations For The Coming Year” or “What Portfolios Should Look Like For This Year”. As we take the long-term (decades) approach I can generally dismiss this as unhelpful noise, designed to evoke anxiety than allay fear. I’m reminded of the 1980s TV Show “Play Your Cards Right” where Bruce Forsyth would reveal cards to players simply shouting “higher” or “lower” than the value of the one previously. Often, I find myself wondering if the investment world is really any better – after all, its meant to be about deploying capital so that good businesses can innovate, improve and expand the goods or services that they provide.
Yet we will see headlines and bylines all attempting to generate anxiety, here are a few that I am expecting.
- Are Markets About to Collapse?
- Has the property market overheated?
- Is cryptocurrency your sure bet to financial freedom?
- Is the Bond market about to bomb?
- Will the crisis in (fill in the blank) impact your portfolio?
- Billions wiped off markets
- Top Funds for (insert year)
- Pension storm warning: tax relief is likely to change in the Budget
- Chancellor plans to scrap (insert point of pain).
I don’t know how this new year will work out for each of us. Some of the above may happen, it may not, the Negative Event World Service (NEWS) wll certainly attempt to stoke anxiety and we can rely on something else always tempting the promise of “better”. I can safely say that we will age, taxes will become due and health, love and friendship are things to cherish and work on. None of us are immortal.
Thank you for paying some attention this year, you are a much better audience than last year. We will continue to call you to look up and look ahead, whilst being aware of the past and context of the present. To be blunt, let us worry about the noise, focus on what you are good at and what you get value from.
Welcome 2022 – we go again.
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