Klopp it

Dominic Thomas
April 2024  •  4 min read

Klopp it

Klopp’s kids beat a Chelsea team that cost a billion to win the League Cup final, confirming belief that Jurgen Klopp is a marvellous manager, one that Liverpool should not let go. I think you would agree that this probably fairly reflects the sentiment across most media platforms following Liverpool’s 1-0 victory over Chelsea.

If you don’t like football, like Ted Lasso, this is not really about football. Stay with me.

Any manager has to select players from his/her squad from those available (not injured).  Jurgen Klopp selected a team based on his own criteria, but suffice to say not all the regular stars were available due to injury. As a result, he had to look beyond the familiar, to the rising stars, untested for a big occasion. By the end of the match which predictably went into extra time, there were five Liverpool players under the age of 20 on the pitch bringing the average age of the 11 on the pitch to under 22.

There has been much praise for this bold approach and the legacy that the departing manager will have provided, a future that looks exceedingly bright. Credit where it is due, it was indeed an impressive result, though I think it fair to say that Chelsea are not at their best. However, the ages of players, cost and who won are not the issues here.

The tendency of the media is to move towards extremes, failing to retain a level head, seemingly stuck in an adolescent state of black or white. Much is being made of the success of Liverpool’s youngsters with euphoric sentiments about the future.

It is perfectly possible that Liverpool’s young players go on to have very successful (trophy winning) careers, but it also depends on undeniable luck. Skill as an athlete is the entry price, but luck will often feature. I mean luck in avoiding injury, having sufficient stability, opportunity to play. Typically players retire at around 35. James Milner is currently 38 and playing for Brighton, having moved from Liverpool at the end of the last season. He is one of the oldest and most successful premier league players. He was born in 1986 and his six minute Boxing Day debut for Leeds made him the second youngest premier league debutant, just nine days before his 17th birthday. Milner has won lots and has the second highest number of Premier League appearances and is closing in on the record of 653.

Milner, like most athletes, does what he can to ensure he stays fit and skilled, but he has also been lucky with his fitness that has enabled him to continue playing and moving between teams that have a real prospect of winning (Manchester City and Liverpool since 2010).

Football pundits and commentators tend to forget luck, they forget survivor bias and often make statements with such a degree of certainty as a voice of authority, that many or perhaps most assume them correct. In the end they may be, but it’s unknown and bluntly, unlikely.

Investing is the same. We all see charts on billboards, newspapers or the internet showing how wonderful a particular investor is. There is no guarantee at all that this will continue or be repeated. Certainly they may have a good succession program in place, or assistants making the results more collaborative, but the truth is that we simply don’t know how much was luck and good health (investment managers also get ill, cancer, stroke, mental health issues and so on). Many or most investors elect for the belief that it is possible to consistently beat the market … denial of reality is a thing.

When James Milner made his debut at Leeds in 2002, Liverpool’s most successful period was already in decline, indeed they had never won the Premier League in his entire career until he helped them do so in 2020 some 30 years since their last League win (a record that their arch rivals Manchester United hope they do not match, but are now approaching halfway).

Sport is fickle, so is investing. As much as we would prefer not to acknowledge it, preferring to believe that we make our own luck – or where opportunity meets preparedness. Luck is part of the reality.

That’s why we avoid costly investment strategies that rely on the luck of a Manager. Over a reasonable time, one that is the real experience of investors like you, only about 5% of managers beat the market. So are you willing to bet your family’s wealth in 2024 on who they will be by 2044?… and pay a hefty premium for the privilege?

No, neither are we. At this point I cannot even tell you who will win this season’s Premier League which is over halfway through and concluding this Summer …

Klopp it2024-04-04T15:15:37+01:00

Getting enough state pension?

Dominic Thomas
Dec 2022  •  12 min read

Are you getting enough state pension?

This item is relevant to women aged at least 69 and men 71 or older.

The State Pension is regularly in the news, yet it is widely misunderstood. It has not helped that Government policy over the decades has altered it considerably as society has changed, both in terms of equality and longevity. As a result there are layers to the State Pension, not everyone gets the same amount.

In recent years it came to light that some pensioners had not been receiving what they were due. According to the DWP this dates back at least as far as 1985. Initially in March last year the DWP estimated that about 134,000 pensioners had been underpaid, but by  July this year the figure rose to 237,000 with underpayments worth about £1.4bn.

The main challenge is accurately assessing all the data and making recompense and in practice the DWP have flagged a possible 400,000 cases that require a review. To complete the review process alone along the original timescales is by the end pf 2024 (which will be too late for many) means reviewing 19,000 cases a month, at the last count only 4,000 cases were being reviewed each month. The DWP is hoping that increasing staff from 500 to 1500 and better automated systems will help them get on track… errm, good luck with that. Let’s remember that the problem is one of poor data in the first place with errors going unspotted for many years, there is already concern that even the solutions will contain errors.

At the time of writing around £200m has been paid of the estimated £1.46bn and many suggest the process may well take 5 years to complete.

According to the DWP, those impacted are people that claimed their pension before April 2016 and do not have a full National Insurance record, largely impacting married (or widowed) women. Tracing people is problematic but around 118,000 that could be traced were underpaid by an average £8,900 each. Some payments are much larger.

The DWP advise that they will be in touch, frankly I would not wait for them to contact you if you think you may be affected. You can and should check your State Pension here: www.gov.uk/state-pension. Please note this problem really relates to the older State pension, not the one that superseded it in 2016. In reality that means if you are a man and born before 6 April 1951 or a woman born before 6 April 1953. Today (December 2022) you would therefore be at least 69 if a woman 71 if a man. If it helps, Liverpool football legend Kenny Dalglish and pop veteran Chris Rea (On The Beach and Driving Home for Christmas) were both born 4th March 1951 or American Mary Steenburgen (of Back to the Future) in February 1953 or our own Jenny Agutter (The Railway Children and Logan’s Run) who was born in December 1952.

THOSE PROBABLY SHORT-CHANGED

The DWP focus on these main categories

  • Someone already getting State Pension who got divorced or had their civil partnership dissolved.
  • A married woman whose husband reached State Pension age after them and who became entitled to his State Pension before 17 March 2008
  • A husband, wife or civil partner in a couple where both had reached State Pension age and the other person has died and not yet claimed their State Pension, or
  • Someone aged 80 and over who has either no State Pension or Graduated Retirement Benefit, as they need to make a claim to get any Category D State Pension.

APRIL 2023 – THE INCREASE for 2023/24

I was asked recently if everyone’s State Pension will be increased by the inflation rate of 10.1% announced in the November Budget. I can confirm that according to all the Government website information this is the case. I have used this link as the source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-and-pension-rates-2023-to-2024/benefit-and-pension-rates-2023-to-2024  but to save you the trouble, the salient information is shown below. The new State Pension has a much later retirement age and this is likely to be extended further. A small footnote in the Budget showed that the Government would set out its intention in 2023.

THE “OLD” STATE PENSION

Category Rates for 2022/23 Rates for 2023/24
Category A or B basic pension £141.85 / £7,376.20 £156.20 / £8,122.40
Category B (lower) basic pension – spouse or civil partner’s insurance £85.00 / £4,420 £93.60 / £4,867.20
Category C or D – non-contributory £85.00 / £4,420 £93.60 / £4,867.20

THE NEW STATE PENSION

New State Pension Rates for 2022/23 Rates for 2023/24
Full State Pension £185.15 per week / £9,627.80 per year £203.85 per week / £10,600.20 per year

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Getting enough state pension?2025-01-21T15:51:59+00:00
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