ENGINEERING THE FIGURES

TODAY’S BLOG

ENGINEERING THE FIGURES

There are many good things about social media, but I do get fed up with some of the narratives thrown around that, in my opinion, casually have an agenda. One topic that often gathers some traction is that of the property market. Most of us discuss the ludicrous price of buying a home at some time, some make much of their skill to invest in property, which is often rather more to do with luck than skill. However I have become very tired of the media holding out examples of some young people who got onto the property ladder and in so doing imply that others only have themselves to blame for their inability to do so.

DISTILLING THE TRUTH

I came across a couple of examples in the last few days. One involved a 28-year old whose father bought him a bottle of 18-year old Macallan whisky on the day of his birth and then every birthday thereafter. The headline suggested that this enabled Matthew Robinson to buy his first home. The virtues of foresight by his father and personal resistance of temptation netting the result of £40,000 worth of whisky. It’s a lovely idea and nothing wrong with it at all as a gift. I have some questions though.

UK Property

IN GOOD SPIRITS

Firstly, the whisky has not actually been sold yet and no home has been purchased. This deposit was not actually the hard work of Matthew but of his father. The only thing Matthew has done is follow his fathers instructions not to consume it. I wonder how it was stored, I suspect that the 28 bottles have not followed Matthew away to University or any other place he may have lived, they probably remained at his parents home (I am guessing). As a gift it’s a lovely one, as an investment…. Well, there are obvious risks – which no proper investment portfolio would have – concentrated risk and the past, current and future risk of total wipe out. I could literally destroy a portfolio of whisky in minutes. I could not do the same for any investment portfolio.

ROOM WITH A VIEW – TUNNEL VISION VIA BOX

Then there was the case of Jessica Leung who at 29 managed to buy a property worth £450,000 in Bristol, right opposite IBK Brunel’s the SS Great Britain. This, the headlines suggest was done by moving home to save rent and cancelling her gym membership. It turns out that Jessica was able to put down a £90,000 deposit, pay stamp duty and raise a mortgage of £360,000 on her own salary. It turns out that 30% of the deposit was from her father (£27,000) and “family savings” of £53,000 together with her own £10,000 make £90,000. In fact, Jessica had saved £10,000 not really £90,000. An engineering of “I saved the deposit” feat that Mr Brunel might marvel at. Given that she would likely require an income of £90,000 to borrow £360,000 then to be blunt she might have saved rather more.

Do not misunderstand me. I am not berating Matthew or Jessica or indeed their parents. To my mind these stories have rather more to do with making other young people feel inadequate and relieving the sense of guilt (we did absolutely nothing to benefit from property price rises)  that the rest of us have from time to time, when we recognise how hard it is. The truth is that the parents were instrumental in raising the deposits in both instances. These sorts of mixed messages are rife – a few months ago young people were chastised for buying lunch at Pret, now they are being told to do so in order to keep it open. The messages are all to do with supporting those in power who clearly have a lot vested in maintaining the property-owning class precisely as it is.

Rather obviously I work with clients to help them become financially independent and many parents want to help their children as these did. However, pretending that because some can that it is just a matter of personal disciplined saving by the young adult is utter twaddle. I expect nothing to change.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

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Are we a good fit for you?

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

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Are we a good fit for you?

ENGINEERING THE FIGURES2023-12-01T12:13:14+00:00

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL

TODAY’S BLOG

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL…

I’ve been trying to think of ways to explain the benefit of long-term investing. I’m not a big beer drinker, but given that when I do go to a pub, I’m always shocked at how much a pint of beer is. According to the ONS, the average pint of beer in the UK was £3.67 in January this year. Clearly a  national average, because that wouldn’t buy much in London.

30 Years Ago… 1989

Anyway, let’s suppose I am someone that likes to buy the occasional pint of beer. As I get older, like most people I tend to remember elements of the past fondly. Particularly this time of year as students return to University. 30 years ago, perhaps you were at University or had long since left. 1989 – the time when Nigel Lawson was replaced as Chancellor by John Major. Simply Red had a hit album “A New Flame”; Challenge Anneka had aired for the first time and Nick Faldo won the Open. A pint of beer back then was £1.03.

BOTTLES OF BEER

YOUR ANXIETY

Let’s suppose you had £1000 you wanted to do something with. The memory of Michael Fish and the great storm closely followed by Black Monday was fairly fresh in your memory. You didn’t fancy the stock market. So you found a decent deposit account, rates were high causing problems for borrowers but great for savers at 14%.

Thirty years later that £1000 had risen to £2,080 by January this year. You had forgotten about it except for when you sighed with relief as economic recessions came, Y2K, Dotcom bubble, Korean crisis, 9/11, credit crunch – you had avoided them all.

Yet there is a problem. In 1989 your £1000 would have bought a 30-year younger you 970 pints of beer. Today your £2,080 would only stretch to 566 pints.

Your Uni Friend John had a PEP

Your good friend John from University had put his money into the UK stock market, he put £1,000 into a Personal Equity Plan, some quirky idea brought in by Nigel Lawson. He bought a FTSE100 tracker fund (ok, maybe not, but stay with me). He had to live with the same economic stresses and saw the topsy turvy workings of the stock market. However, at the end of 30 years his £1000 was worth £11,494. He hadn’t touched it (neither had his adviser) and so all dividends were reinvested. This sort of money enables John to buy 3,131 pints of beer. That’s 5 times more than your 556 pints.

Julia also had a PEP

John is fairly happy, but his girlfriend Julia at the time also put £1,000 into a PEP, but she put it all into the FTSE250 tracker. She figured that slightly smaller companies might do a bit better than bigger ones. Lo and behold, Julia’s £1,000 has turned into £20,818. Julia can buy 5,672 pints of beer, that’s ten times (10x) TEN TIMES as much as your 556 pints.

OK – Smallprint (or not) Caveat Emptor…

Admittedly I have taken some liberties with costs, charges and the available funds in 1989. The biggest liberty I really took was suggesting that people leave their money alone. They/we don’t. We all tend to fiddle around, attempting to find a slightly or perhaps considerably “better” option.

Long story short, when considering investment for decades, what on earth does “risk” really mean? The risk of the power of the money in your pocket being worth less (or worthless) due to rising prices? The risk of seeing your money stagnate in cash? The risk of seeing the value of investments rise then fall?

30 Years £1000

Monsters grow

What ought to be blindingly clear…. don’t let your anxiety dictate your financial planning and investment strategy. It is a dreadful guide to future performance. The monster at your door is inflation, however small it seems today, feed it for 30 years and it’s still hungry and likely to eat you alive.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

970 BOTTLES OF BEER ON THE WALL2023-12-01T12:17:12+00:00
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