Geopolitics and Market Volatility

Matt Loadwick
Feb 2025  •  3 min read

Geopolitics and Market Volatility

The stability, or otherwise, and volatility of global stock markets can be affected by a number of factors, which can be both economic and political in nature. In terms of economic factors, both UK and US economies are currently experiencing well-documented inflation, the result of rising costs of goods and services. This leads to increased borrowing costs, and to market uncertainty, as investors get spooked by high costs, and have a tendency to wait for prices to drop before investing.

In the UK, a glimmer of light appeared when the rate of inflation dropped by 0.1% in December compared to November, easing the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and going some way to improve market confidence as the odds increase of the Bank of England reducing interest rates early this year. That said, it does feel like the current news cycle in the UK will provide reasons to be cheerful one day, followed by reasons to despair on the following, fuelling further volatility as markets react.

Global stock markets are also influenced by geopolitical events, where often the unpredictability surrounding such events can lead to increased volatility. As an example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in firms that had strong ties to Russia experiencing a significant fall in share prices.

It is also worth pointing out that politics and economics clearly do not exist in a vacuum, with both influencing each other symbiotically – as politicians drive their economic agenda, markets respond accordingly depending on the success (or otherwise) of their policies …

As the 47th President of the United States was sworn in for the second time earlier in January, the world is braced for increasing geopolitical uncertainty with a Trump administration once again at the helm. Indeed, they have taken little time to give us a taste of what is to come over the next four years, creating headlines through divisive policies, such as the proposed mass deportations of illegal immigrants, withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement (compounded by plans to increase drilling for oil to promote as a key US export), pardoning the circa 1,500 Trump supporters who were charged over the 2021 US Capitol riots, and far-fetched rumours (we hope) of an interest in invading Greenland.

Such examples certainly give the impression that this administration may cause something of ‘a bumpy ride’ for markets in the coming years, particularly in the context of ongoing conflicts in the Middle-East and Ukraine. This is reflected in research undertaken by Scottish Widows, which suggests that geopolitics and volatility are likely to be among the top concerns for advisers in 2025.

If at some point you were to watch the value of your investments take a temporary drop, it is only human nature to feel a sense of nervousness. In the face of this expected volatility, we at Solomon’s are here as ever to encourage calm, and to ensure that our clients do not lose sight of the importance of planning for the long term.

Geopolitics and Market Volatility2025-02-10T10:02:08+00:00

The Rising

Dominic Thomas
October 2023  •  3 min read

The rising

We have all been aware that prices have been rising, some rather more than the officially stated rate of inflation (are they kidding?). You are equally likely to be aware that interest rates on cash deposits have been slowly creeping up, reflecting the Bank of England lending rates. Most of the Banks and Building Societies were shamed into increasing rates by the regulator, the financial cartel has slowly limped to improvement in their offerings. At the time of writing, global equity markets are up about 7.28% over 12 months or 9.96% since the start of 2023.

This has also meant an increase in annuity rates, which are a fair bit higher than 12 months ago. Annuity rates are based on life expectancy and economic conditions, notably interest rates. For example, over the last year, according to Standard Life, annuities are up about 20%. However a little warning about the statement, there is a sense of ‘if only’ about these sorts of things…

If you were quoted for an annuity last year at age 65 (for example) you would be 66 now. As a result your annuity quote would be more anyway due to the fact that you are a year older. The older you are the better the deal, because it’s about your life expectancy (how much is left of it).

If you had bought an annuity last year at the prevailing rates, you may be a little miffed, as most of them do not increase with inflation each year. In simple terms you use a pension fund (usually) to buy a fixed income for life. This is either just in your name or with a spouse benefit (the income will continue at the same level or a lower amount each year). When the annuitant dies, generally the annuity stops, unless there is a spouse benefit or a special guarantee has been bought (so would pay the estate). You can certainly have an increasing annuity, but normally at fixed terms of 3% or 5% at the most. However these are costly and tend to be much lower, typically taking 12 years to catch up before actually paying more each month than a level annuity.

Let’s suppose you have £100,000 and are 65 – a single life, level annuity would provide about £7,462 a year (roughly). If you had been born a year earlier and turned 65 in 2022, you would have an annuity paying around £6,218 a year. This is nothing to do with investments performance, but everything to do with interest rates. Over time, that difference becomes more significant the longer you live.

The other odd thing about annuities is that if you are not in great medical shape, you may well qualify for an enhanced annuity, perhaps 30%-40% more. This is due to the expectation that your life will be shorter than average.

So had you waited you would be able to get a bigger annuity, if your health had worsened you would have a better annuity, if your spouse had died, you would get a better annuity. All pretty grim really. These are all things that we cannot predict, other than that you age. It’s also why we ask you about your health and plans. These are not insignificant issues.  Let’s talk about them.

The Rising2025-01-21T15:49:31+00:00

WHY YOU REALLY DON’T WANT A FAKE GUCCI

TODAY’S BLOG

WHY YOU REALLY DON’T WANT A FAKE GUCCI

I imagine you have been around long enough to know the name of fashion house Gucci; you are likely to have come across the occasional Gucci store in one of our big cities or at an airport, the familiar logo and green/burgundy stripes. I very much doubt that your first experience of Gucci is a poster for the new film by Ridley Scott, who once again proves an inability for editing a film under 2 hours, which is a little amusing when there isn’t a single stitch or fabric cut in the film either.

Anyway, I did not know the story of Gucci (sorry) and to be plain, I am not sure I do now. The Romans were responsible for many myths and yet it appears that successful families in Italia (and elsewhere) continue to ignore all the warnings about families, legacy and wealth.

Despite its length, I enjoyed the telling of a family determined to self-destruct, failing to communicate about anything important, all the while offering the appearance of family unity. The hills of Rome, Tuscany or Milan are insufficient to bury the deeply seated gripes that one branch has against the other. Like lonely Jupiter, judging from on high, nursing grievances about the trivial yet punishing with wrath.

No Fake Gucci

THE OBSESSION WITH CONTROL

It often all boils down to control. We are all probably tempted to believe that we have rather more control over things than we really do. Money corrupts most people, not everyone. I would suggest that it is more likely to corrupt those that seek to control (or power).

I believe that there is very little in life that we can control. I say this as a planner, presumably yours. Hopefully you have heard me say something like this before. I cannot control the markets (nobody really thinks that I can) I cannot control the future and I certainly cannot control who is elected and the policies that are introduced. We can all agree on this. Yet the truth is we cannot control very much of anything. We can try, we can plan, we can prepare, we can repeat, learn, gain experience but I cannot even really control how my body reacts or functions. I know its not popular to say so, but that doesn’t make it untrue.

Acknowledging how little I can actually control has been a lifelong journey for me, one that I suspect and hope is far from over. Obviously within a financial planning context we have “controls” and monitor these, responding appropriately based upon accumulated experience. Truthfully, we control costs as far as possible (I cannot control what others charge). We control asset allocation within a comfortable range. We control our own output, but not entirely devoid of externalities that dictate a degree of what makes up “advice”.

CATWALK VALUES

To my mind, we focus on what is important and attempt to encourage our clients to do the same – whatever “important” means to you. In the main, the common themes are relationships and a self-identity, not yachts, grand gestures or bank balances. Yet we cannot control relationships either, at least, not in any healthy way. The uncomfortable truth is that it has something to do with letting go. Something our clients have to sit with on occasion, letting go of control, trusting our advice and processes to ultimately come good. This is always easier to do when things are going well and tested when they do not.

Sadly, the Gucci family, at least in the film-story, forgot all that was important. The fake Gucci bags being a metaphor for their own lives. Quality comes from crafted time, not short-cuts. I’d suggest that the things that are truly important to you are products of time, probably many, many years.

The House of Gucci is streaming at a platform to your living room. The makeup is certainly impressive. Here is the trailer, the film stars Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Al Pacino, Jeremy Irons, Salma Hayek and Jared Leto.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

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The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

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GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

WHY YOU REALLY DON’T WANT A FAKE GUCCI2025-01-28T10:05:36+00:00

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE CRISIS

TODAY’S BLOG

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE

The depressing news that Russia has invaded Ukraine will please nobody. The tension has been building and reflecting in global prices of all assets. The value of something is always spurious. The stock market is about as regulated and wrapped in red tape as it is possible to be, constantly monitored around the world, it is arguably the purist, cleanest way to value companies and trade currency, bonds and commodities.

As a client, you have ample experience to know that markets rise and fall. The forward rise of markets is a permanent state (when considered properly) the declines are temporary. This is how things are, this is the uncomfortable truth. That means there are occasionally very large temporary falls in value… which then recover.

A loss is only created when you sell for less than you paid. If you sell holdings in a market low, you are likely to have lost money on your investment. If you wait – until you need the money, as we have carefully planned with you, then you will ride out the storm of the day.

Something familiar

UNKNOWN FUTURE

I do not know how the situation in Ukraine will unfold. Nobody does. I think it likely that we can all agree that world leaders don’t really seem to be very good these days, inflated egos and social media soundbites are no basis for running a country well. There are an array of reasons and motives behind the Russian aggression, maybe this has been many years in the making. A weakened EU, a divided UK (most nations now seem to be), the stalwart of Germany out of the way,  a pandemic that has cost billions and an energy ‘crisis’. Opportune or designed? Or perhaps this is ‘nothing more’ than a long-held grudge about the expansion of NATO. Or perhaps this is purely about the energy supply lines that go from Russia through Belarus and Ukraine and it makes up the majority of their income from abroad (worth a glance at a piece from five years ago here). Here is an image from the Economist to provide a little illumination.

The Economist / JP Morgan

We do know that Mr Putin is certainly someone that is capable of playing the long game, unlike our own Prime Minister. Has he underestimated his opponents and the degree of international outrage? Perhaps. He probably took reassurance from Syria, Afghanistan or Yemen where the world basically made an noise and then left quickly. I have no idea, neither do you unless you are at GCHQ or MI5 or some similar organisation – and I suspect even then you are guessing.

What I can tell you is that markets will recover. Politicians do not get to shape your financial plan. It is built with market volatility in mind. Whilst we are again confounded by the folly of war by the few on the many, we can hope that this ends soon with minimal loss of life. Yet we are realists and know that egos need to be nursed into a state of calmness before aggression ends. There is much work to do, but worrying about your portfolio is not on the list. If anything, the temporary decline in value is another opportunity to buy at a discount.

We are all concerned about the lives of people in Ukraine and the surrounding region, that is an entirely proper response. But this time it’s different… well, the events maybe (though they echo history) but actually these dreadful events are sadly all too normal and familiar.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk 
Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

GET IN TOUCH

Solomon’s Independent Financial Advisers
The Old Mill Cobham Park Road, COBHAM Surrey, KT11 3NE

Email – info@solomonsifa.co.uk    Call – 020 8542 8084

7 QUESTIONS, NO WAFFLE

Are we a good fit for you?

MORE MARKET VOLATILITY – UKRAINE CRISIS2023-12-01T12:12:54+00:00

Lady Luck – The Domino Effect

Lady Luck – The Domino Effect

I have a growing awareness of my good fortune.  I might call it luck. This week I was on a training course and we had a very good talk about diversity. We examined the topic from several perspectives, but for the sake of time, this was for application to our own firms (how we employ and empower staff) and also for clients and prospective clients – how we engage in a way that is authentic and accessible.

There is no doubt in my mind that I am fortunate. Lucky to have many “natural” and geographic advantages. Lucky in so many ways and many that I will probably never truly appreciate.

The session prompted some thinking and will inform some of the decisions I make in the future. New, helpful, relevant information tends to do that, doesn’t it?

Luck is not a Superpower

On the train home, I thought about the new film “Deadpool 2”. OK, it probably isn’t everyone’s “cup of tea”. It is an ironic, send up of the superhero, by a superhero. Violent and full of choice language it pokes fun at itself and the cinematic world. There are many comedic moments, which are best understood in the context of superhero films, this is not really a family film, yet it is about family.

Domino (Zazie Beetz) claims that her superhero strength is “luck”. Deadpool (Ryan Reynolds) mocks her, claiming that “luck is not a superpower… it’s not cinematic”. It is unreliable and outside of anyone’s control…yet Domino uses her natural skills which are enhanced by luck, which of course makes for an amusing sequence of events in the movie.

Checking back to real life, many of us may fail to appreciate the luck we have. Few can fully do so, some give it a different name. However, when it comes to reliability, luck sometimes isn’t a lady (Guys and Dolls). Luck is not a plan, it is not a super-strength and it definitely has no place in a financial plan, unless your plan is to gamble.

Coming to terms with Carnage

Markets are what they are, hostile for those that do not appreciate how they operate, they have their own “natural laws”. One is a correction. Equities are volatile, we need them to be, that is precisely what provides long-term growth and value. Yet almost everyone behaves as though it is your enemy. The media will fill its vacuum with tales of Armageddon like carnage that neither Deadpool or The Juggernaut could possibly match. Yet this is the unvarnished truth… markets are volatile, they fall, and they rise again… repeat, ker-ching…

The great untruth, is that risk can be removed, that there is growth without pain. Risk can only ever be swapped, not removed.

OK, so here is the trailer… click play at your own risk, lots of F-word and violence. You’ve been warned.

Oh.. if you do go to see the movie, as with all Marvel films, there is more to come within the long rolling credits.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Lady Luck – The Domino Effect2025-01-21T15:53:25+00:00

A Certain Future

A Certain Future

Our culture is full of clamour for certainty… tell us the future? Why was your forecast wrong? (as a Radio4 presenter seem to berate The Bank of England this morning). Why didn’t you foresee such and such? It seems that we all want certainty – perhaps to affirm our own beliefs about life and people, or perhaps because deep down we know that life is anything but certain.

It appears this quest for certainty is intense at present, I say “seems” because I doubt that’s true, but we are bombarded with messages that would leave most rational folk with a deep sense of anxiety due to climate change, Brexit, technology, feckless politicians and a sense that perhaps, perhaps… the bullies are winning.

If only…

Investors are unsurprisingly startled by the normal behaviour of investment markets, when the “corrections” come. There is always anxiety over when is the best time to invest and when is a bad time to invest. None of us wishes to appear foolish.

Yet the basic law of investing (not speculating) is that markets are volatile, short term investing is unwise, long-term investing in a globally diverse portfolio is the best, most logical way to grow the value of money over time. In exchange you must live with seeing the “value” rise and fall rapidly and daily. If only we knew the future and had some certainty…

The Phlebotomist

I’m here to tell you that there is none. Yet we will search and research for it, developing theories to help us navigate the condition of life. This in mind, I was intrigued by a brief review of a new play “The Phlebotomist” by a young playwriter (Ella Road) which considers a not too distant dystopian future, where a blood test can reveal what illnesses you will suffer from, all rather like a credit score, but a health score.

I understand that this is explored in the context of a dating app, when people are forced to consider their choice of partner, given this pre-warning information. Sadly, I am not able to see the play at Hampstead Theatre which is sold out and runs until Saturday 19th May 2018. I hope that its success will lead to a wider, longer run. If you are going, please let me know your thoughts.

Life would be very dull if we knew what would happen. A sense of “Groundhog Day” is deeply unsatisfying. This fragile life, for all its faults is delightful (or potentially) precisely because of the lack of certainty.

Anyway, here’s a video from the cast of “The Phlebotomist” by Ella Road and directed by Sam Yates.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

A Certain Future2023-12-01T12:18:10+00:00

Living on the Edge

Solomons-financial-advisor-guest-blogger-Jim-Parker

Living on the Edge

Digital innovation has democratised access to financial information to the point where anyone with a smartphone, a few apps and real-time news and data feeds can be like a pro trader. But who wants to do that? And do you need to? In the world of information flows, speed is barely an issue anymore. And the old hierarchies, where professionals with state of the art systems had priority access to breaking news, have been progressively dismantled.

For instance, a $500 smartphone with a 1.3 gigahertz processor is more than a thousand times faster than the Apollo guidance computer that sent astronauts to the moon nearly half a century ago. Its internal memory is 250,000 times bigger.

Time and Moneyedge_of_tomorrow

The upshot is that financial and other information comes at us faster and in greater volumes than ever. We no longer have to wait for the six o’clock TV news to know what happened in markets today. Our apps notify us in real time. But amid this era of always-on news flow, the big question for most of us is not about our access to real-time information; it’s about whether we actually need to be so plugged in to have a successful investment experience. Dealing with that question starts with reflecting how much of an investment “edge” you get by having access to information that is so freely available.

Returning to the problem

On that score, there’s an old concept in economics called the law of diminishing returns. It essentially says that adding more and more of one input, while keeping everything else constant, gives you progressively less bang for your buck.

At the industrial end of this technology arms race, you have the high frequency traders who spend a fortune on advanced communications infrastructure to try to take advantage of split second changes in millions of prices. On the evolutionary scale, these computer programs make smart phones look like ploughshares. So against that background it’s not clear that adding the latest market-minder app to your iPhone is necessarily the path to investment success.

The second question to ask is what you are trying to achieve. Are you trying to “beat” the market by finding mistakes in prices and timing your entry and exit points? If so, and given the competition above, you might want to review your information budget.

The truth for most of us is that investment is not an end in itself, but a means to an end. We want to save for a house or put our children through school or look after aging parents or give ourselves a good chance of a comfortable retirement.

In this context, the most relevant information is about our own lives and circumstances. How much do we spend? How much can we save? What’s our risk appetite? What are our future needs? And how much of a cash buffer do we need?

Independent Advice

This is the value an independent financial advisor can bring—not in trying to second-guess the market or using forecasts to gamble with your money—but in understanding the life situation of each person and what each of them needs.

Ultimately, markets are so competitive that we really are wasting our own precious resources by trying to game them. What most of us need is to secure the long-term capital market rates of return as efficiently as possible. So our limited resource is not speed or access to information, but our own time. We only have a short window to live the lives we want. And that means we should start any investment plan with understanding ourselves.

That’s where the edge is.

Living on the Edge2025-01-27T16:13:05+00:00

What about China?

Solomons-financial-advisor-guest-blogger-SW

What about China?

For some time now, I’ve been complaining about the oversized contribution from investment in China’s recent expansion

[1]. Actually, I’m not the only one. Policymakers are busily crafting the conditions that might bring about a rebalanced economy – one less reliant on exports & investment and more reliant on domestic demand & consumer spending.

The IMF might be right Chinese Puzzle

‘Investment growth in China declined in the third quarter of 2014, and leading indicators point to a further slowdown. The authorities are now expected to put greater weight on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth and hence the forecast assumes less of a policy response to the underlying moderation. Slower growth in China will also have important regional effects, which partly explains the downward revisions to growth in much of emerging Asia.’ WEO January 2015.

Building more and more factories to house more and more machinery manned by more and more workers will get you a long way; China’s economy is not far off 40 times larger than it was in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping succeeded Mao Zedong. But while ultra-high levels of investment are associated with rapid expansion they’re not generally associated with sustained growth. The returns that are associated with an over-reliance on debt-fuelled investment diminish with time (thanks in part to an inevitable inefficient use of capital) while the risks are amplified (owing to overleverage and rising volumes of non-performing loans).

China, I suggest, has a debt problem – today’s Financial Times reports that ‘Chinese corporations are now among the most indebted in the world’ – but with everything else that is going on in the world[2] investors are not yet fully alive to the possibility of a much slower pace of growth. Indeed the huge premium that the market for Chinese A shares (dominated by domestic investors, it has risen in value by over 60% in the last 6 months) has over the market for B shares (dominated by international investors, it has risen in value by a much less thrilling 19% over the same period) suggests that Chinese investors are most hopeful of sustained high growth rates.

So far as I can see, two paths are apparent; China’s rate of growth can slow in orderly form or disorderly form, but it will slow nevertheless.

Steve Williams


[1] Post 2008 in particular, where gross fixed capital formation has accounted for around half of the Chinese economy[2] It’s all so exciting; an extraordinary oil price decline, huge gulfs in monetary policy between those in the US and Europe, Syriza’s rise to power in Greece, another full-blown Russian crisis and Japanese policymakers throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, in a spectacular attempt to kick-start their economy

What about China?2023-12-01T12:39:57+00:00

Meet the new Boss (of Japan)

Solomons-financial-advisor-guest-blogger-SW

Meet the new Boss (of Japan)

There was little doubt that Shinzo Abe would be granted a third term as Prime Minister; the ruling coalition’s majority was almost entirely insurmountable, certainly from the perspective of an opposition party in a state of disarray . In the event, the inevitability of it all encouraged the lowest voter-turnout in living memory (at 52.4%).

Actually, Abe’s victory was not entirely a compelling one. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost 3 of the seats they gained in the 2012 election while their coalition partners, Komeito (described by the Financial Times as ‘pacifist-leaning’), gained 4 seats. Together, they attracted just shy of 50% of votes compared with nearly 23% for the Democratic Party of Japan.

As an aside, a fall in the share of seats for the LDP coincided with a rise in seats for Komeito. The numbers are small (3 lost versus 4 gained) but that ought to help calm fears that Shinzo Abe will shift his focus from domestic economics to a more aggressive form of foreign policy. Komeito’s 2014 manifesto committed them to ‘improving relations with China and South Korea’ and renewed their desire for a ‘zero-nuclear world’. Indeed, the bulk of Abe’s victory speech focused on domestic issues and contained a promise to ‘further push forward our economic policies in a firm and dramatic manner’. crouching-tiger-hidden-dragon3

From the outside looking in, Abenomics 2.0 looks very much like Abenomics 1.0. The only real difference is in the timetable for the remainder of the consumption tax hike (from 8% to 10%) which, barring any more surprises, has been delayed until 2017. Of course the next few weeks will bring policy announcements intended to boost consumer spending and cushion the more harmful effects of a hugely depreciated yen. But these will be fixes – attempts to mask the side effects of established policy – rather than newly originated measures.

In spite of the excitement of the last few months our benchmark for success remains the same – Japan will be significantly closer to sustained growth if real wage rises can be generated in the first instance and maintained in the second instance. Without real wage rises, consumers will see their standard of living eroded while monetary policy supports surging share prices and inflated corporate profits. In time, that will undermine a sense of fairness – a feeling that the gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ is widening – and support for the government will fade.

That is why we place so much emphasis on the package of measures comprising the ‘third arrow’. A tighter labour market (unemployment stands at just 3.5%) and a threat to tax retained corporate earnings might be enough to encourage wage rises which exceed inflation in the short term but far-reaching structural reforms are probably more important in the medium term.

Make no mistake though, Shinzo Abe faces a task of Herculean proportions. In pushing through his reform agenda, to encourage competition in hitherto protected industrial sectors, he must combat powerful vested interests. Japan’s aging and shrinking demographic brings great danger in the long term. But the Japanese have long enjoyed a very high standard of living and Mr Abe’s reforms threaten to disrupt the status quo in the short term.

Steve Williams

Meet the new Boss (of Japan)2023-12-01T12:39:47+00:00

The Outlook for America

Solomons-financial-advisor-guest-blogger-SW

The Outlook for America

I thought that you may find it helpful to have some more “typically financial” market information within the blog.  Steve Williams, who sits on our Investment Committee is something of a whiz with the metrics of markets. Here Steve outlines his thoughts about the US.

Above average

The preliminary estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for growth in Q3 came in at 3.5% on an annualised basis or 2.3% compared with the same time last year. Beginning in Q2 2009 the US economy has seen 22 consecutive quarters of expansion. And that alone is cause for concern for some commentators. According to Bloomberg, ‘the average length of the growth phase of an economic cycle… has been 22 quarters in the post-World War II era’. Of course there are exemplars – the 1961-69 expansion lasted for 35 quarters and the 1983-90 expansion endured for 40 quarters.Captain-America

The International Monetary Fund expects the US economy to grow by 2.2% in 2014, considerably faster than the 1.8% average for advanced nations. If they’re right – and I am guessing that they are not far off – Q4 will see the current run of growth extend into its 23rd consecutive quarter. Notwithstanding that, a slowing in the present pace of increase is likely to be sustained. Real wages remain depressed, just as they are in the UK, and that is suppressing consumption, limiting business investment and house building activity. Impetus is slowing abroad too.

Indeed, the October employment report counted 214,000 new jobs compared with consensus expectations of around 230,000. The Financial Times reported expectations as high as 275,000 from Capital Economics. The 12-month period prior to October, saw the US economy add an average of 220,000 new jobs each month – the best 12-month stretch since the heady days of 2006. Nevertheless, anything over 200,000 is indicative of a sustained expansion.

I’m not uncomfortable, at this stage, with forecasts for growth to be maintained in 2015, albeit at a less than inspired medium pace (perhaps between 2% and 3%). Consumer spending will be buoyed by lower energy costs and employment gains. In addition, there is reasonable cause to expect an increase in business spending too. Thus far, serious Business Fixed Investment has been lacking – not surprising given the degree of slack that has persisted in the US economy and a backdrop of low inflation. But there is evidence to suggest that the degree of slack is much diminished and, if that continues, businesses will be increasingly incentivised to invest. November’s New York Empire manufacturing survey revealed a 31-month high for ‘planned expenditures’.
If we do see an upturn in levels of business investment, the US economy is likely to see sustained expansion moving well ahead of the 22-quarter average.

But whilst I’m reasonably bullish on the US economy I am reluctant to express too high a level of conviction. That’s because one of the more reliable early warning signs of impending recession – the shape of the US yield curve – can barely be considered useful at this time, so affected is it by recent unprecedented monetary policy actions. The reality, I think, is that asset prices are more vulnerable to shocks today than they have been for some time. Indeed, with the Fed’s policy of QE in full effect there was always a sense that ‘good news was good news’ and ‘bad news was good news’ too. After all, flows of bad economic data were met with increased flows of monetary stimulus. From here on, ‘bad news’ may well be taken as ‘bad news’ again.

Steve Williams

The Outlook for America2023-12-01T12:39:37+00:00
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