Sanctions, sanity and sanctuary

Dominic Thomas
April 2025 • 5 min read

Sanctions, sanity and sanctuary

You are old enough to know that the world is fairly mad. Nations are often run by fairly despicable people, sometimes elected into power, sometimes they simply take it. At some point in life (for some this might be their entire lifetime) an opinion is formed about ‘others’ who are used as the excuse for many ills and failures. The truth is a victim of agenda and despite the cold epitaphs of November Remembrance services, nothing is really learned other than to repackage misery.

We take it as a sad reflection of “man’s inhumanity to man” that some people don’t and won’t get on, invariably due to holding a different opinion about religion or politics or both. In a capitalist world, withholding money and trade (or making it harder for both) is a way of attempting to coerce a required behaviour. This may have worked in the 1980s with sanctions imposed against South Africa; whether it has worked elsewhere is debatable. Yet it remains a rather obvious tool.

Idealists (which I am prone to myself at times) may well argue that the power of withholding custom or money from some companies may help nudge them towards better behaviour. Trying is arguably better than doing nothing.

In the investment world, screening out companies (or even countries) is not without its challenges. One man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist. Perspective and narrative are up for grabs and twisted to suit.

The war in Palestine, which is horrendous, poses challenges. For some to criticise Israeli politics is to be antisemitic, which is, in my opinion, utterly daft. Anyone who has paid attention to history, knows the misery and horrors inflicted upon Jews for centuries, particularly in the last World War with the holocaust. It is more than understandable that Jewish people would wish to defend themselves. However, any reasonable person, would not consider the atrocities in Gaza anything remotely reasonable but rather more ironically fascistic.

When Government fails to address a problem, individuals are left to find ways that they might express their concern, and investors reduce or completely withdraw from particular sectors or countries. We are all investors; most people simply don’t know how things really work. If you have a final salary pension (lucky you!) then you may not be aware that money doesn’t simply appear, it is the consequence of investment in property, debt and shares in companies. You do not get to select the investment and given the size of the scheme and pressure on it to provide a guaranteed income for your lifetime and your spouse’s, there isn’t really that much invested into shares due to the need for predictable income and an inflation linked one at that.

Some protest groups have taken to highlighting “investment into Israel” or ammunitions and defence companies that supply Israel (amongst many others). They call for a ban on such holdings as an attempt to influence the behaviour of the companies and Governments concerned. I have sympathy with the sentiment, but as a member of such a scheme you don’t get to choose how and what the pension is invested in and it is enormous. The Local Government Pension for England and Wales for example stood at £354,047,000,000 (£354billion) at the end of 2023. This is a scheme where more is paid out (in pensions) than paid in (contributions by employed members). Roughly 51% of the LGPS is invested in shares. Interesting (for me) the investment costs for 22/23 were £1,726,500,000 which is about 0.4876% of the portfolio (so your portfolio – if arranged by us – gets lower investment costs than the massive pension schemes).

In 2022/23 there were 6.49million members of the LGPS, up from the previous year by 0.1million. Active members (people employed and contributing) amounted to 2.09m (32%); deferred members (former employees not yet taking their pension) 2.39m (37%) and 2.0m people (31%) drawing a pension. To say getting this balance right is difficult would be an understatement.

So, to exclusion … well one article I saw claimed that “81 local government pension funds have known complicit investments” and that £12,214,286,216 was the sum involved. Don’t forget that the value will fluctuate wildly each day (they are shares). These include Amazon and Google, I’m going to guess that you use these services so would be deemed complicit too. If I may infer that roughly half of the LGPS is invested in shares (£180bn or so) then the focus (£12.2bn) is on about 6% of the shares held (by value) – or 3% of the total value of the LGPS.

I’m not going to pretend that this is an easy problem and telling the Board of LGPS to divest itself of £12bn into other shares is either a wise, good or bad thing. Will it make any difference? Is 3% of something an issue that normally causes you distress and guilt? How much of your tax is spent on things you don’t agree with or approve of? Do you write to your MP about it?

£12bn is a lot of money, it should be enough to make most of us stop and think, but when presented as 3% – does that alter your perspective?

Sadly, the world is a chaotic, messy and often nasty place. My privileges of living here in the UK (amongst many others) are not lost on me. I don’t have the answers for the crisis, which is both decades and centuries long. Flexing an economic muscle has its appeal, but quite how much this particular issue is of significance I am afraid that I’m unable to say.

Members of final salary (Defined Benefit) pensions are not able to select funds, but of course are able to lobby the Board about their concerns. For those of you with an investment-based pension, we can discuss screening policy at any time.

If you are seeking a personal opinion, then I would say that lobbying is a good approach to the problem, but it isn’t an easy or straightforward process. Arguably, UK Government (or broader) sanctions might have more of an impact. Demonstrated by the fact that Mr Musk’s remarks and gestures have not gone unnoticed and have resulted in a dramatic change in Tesla’s valuation.

References:

https://lgpsdivest.org/
https://lgpsboard.org/index.php/membership23

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Sanctions, sanity and sanctuaryJemima Thomas2025-04-08T11:14:04+01:00

Geopolitics and Market Volatility

Matt Loadwick
Feb 2025 • 3 min read

Geopolitics and Market Volatility

The stability, or otherwise, and volatility of global stock markets can be affected by a number of factors, which can be both economic and political in nature. In terms of economic factors, both UK and US economies are currently experiencing well-documented inflation, the result of rising costs of goods and services. This leads to increased borrowing costs, and to market uncertainty, as investors get spooked by high costs, and have a tendency to wait for prices to drop before investing.

In the UK, a glimmer of light appeared when the rate of inflation dropped by 0.1% in December compared to November, easing the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and going some way to improve market confidence as the odds increase of the Bank of England reducing interest rates early this year. That said, it does feel like the current news cycle in the UK will provide reasons to be cheerful one day, followed by reasons to despair on the following, fuelling further volatility as markets react.

Global stock markets are also influenced by geopolitical events, where often the unpredictability surrounding such events can lead to increased volatility. As an example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in firms that had strong ties to Russia experiencing a significant fall in share prices.

It is also worth pointing out that politics and economics clearly do not exist in a vacuum, with both influencing each other symbiotically – as politicians drive their economic agenda, markets respond accordingly depending on the success (or otherwise) of their policies …

As the 47^th President of the United States was sworn in for the second time earlier in January, the world is braced for increasing geopolitical uncertainty with a Trump administration once again at the helm. Indeed, they have taken little time to give us a taste of what is to come over the next four years, creating headlines through divisive policies, such as the proposed mass deportations of illegal immigrants, withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement (compounded by plans to increase drilling for oil to promote as a key US export), pardoning the circa 1,500 Trump supporters who were charged over the 2021 US Capitol riots, and far-fetched rumours (we hope) of an interest in invading Greenland.

Such examples certainly give the impression that this administration may cause something of ‘a bumpy ride’ for markets in the coming years, particularly in the context of ongoing conflicts in the Middle-East and Ukraine. This is reflected in research undertaken by Scottish Widows, which suggests that geopolitics and volatility are likely to be among the top concerns for advisers in 2025.

If at some point you were to watch the value of your investments take a temporary drop, it is only human nature to feel a sense of nervousness. In the face of this expected volatility, we at Solomon’s are here as ever to encourage calm, and to ensure that our clients do not lose sight of the importance of planning for the long term.

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Geopolitics and Market VolatilityJemima Thomas2025-02-10T10:02:08+00:00

The Autumn Statement – the Ghost of Christmas Past

Dominic Thomas
Nov 2023 • 2 min read

The Autumn Statement – the Ghost of Christmas Past

We are in the closing weeks of the year. Our thoughts turn to Christmas celebrations and perhaps looking ahead to the New Year. The familiarity of our traditions poses a challenge to attempts to change them, yet even the harshest of men, Mr Scrooge, managed to pay attention to what is important and change his behaviour.

I don’t think it is contentious to say that the Conservatives are a party of tax cutting and yet we currently have one of the highest rates of personal taxes in the main economies. Few of us enjoy paying taxes, perhaps because often it seems that our hard-earned money is wasted on expensive ideas and ‘kit’ that doesn’t work very well at all … anyone tried the NHS IT system or indeed any ‘converting to digital’ Governmental system, let alone the military’s ability to spend a fortune on malfunctioning weaponry to cite just a couple of examples. We all have opinions. (As an aside the Power of Attorney system is going digital in 2024, so I urge you to sort yours before they muck it up and make the backlog even longer).

The Conservatives came to power in May 2010, admittedly with the assistance of the LibDems, but then we have had an entire mess of Government ever since.

According to Jeremy Paxton in 2018, David Cameron was the worst Prime Minister since Eden:

“[He] got to the top of a tree in order to set it on fire and cleared off, put the interests of his party before the country and decided to have this referendum, believed one thing was the only right outcome for the country, didn’t campaign for it, got the opposite outcome and XXX off. It doesn’t seem like leadership to me”.

Given the PMs we have had since 2018, Cameron might actually look a lot better, the bar seems woefully low, anyway, for now Cameron is back, this time as Foreign Secretary.

The backdrop of a Covid enquiry which merely proves what most of us thought, that Mr Johnson is an unreliable character (I am being polite), we have the prospect of an election looming by the end of January 2025. The Labour party seems set on sabotage and the plethora of political open goals being squandered is lamentable. The traditional approach of appealing to the notion “everyone has their price” is in the hands of the Chancellor, who is being tempted to cut taxes now that inflation appears to be returning to a more comfortable figure (4.7% October 2023 ONS).

Which of us doesn’t want to pay less tax? In an environment of rising prices, seeing your net pay remain pitifully stagnant is irksome. Yet we also know that tax pays to keep society running in some vaguely civil way. We can all find things to disagree with, it’s almost a rite of passage into a fifth decade. It’s clear that ‘the system’ doesn’t work for all, and indeed seems to generally work best for the few. The sadness is that there seems to be so few alternatives to the binary choices we have here in the UK; stuck in traditions that don’t work for the good of the country. Creativity and visionary leadership remain sadly elusive.

There was a time when the economy was thought about as a way of serving society, yet here in 2023 we are evidently a society that is serving the economy. There is no good reason why this cannot change, and despite experience, I remain an optimist in a sufficient number of decent people.

For the record, I have no intention of offending your political beliefs, but I do think we all deserve rather better than we have had. On 22 November 2023 we shall get further notice …

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The Autumn Statement – the Ghost of Christmas PastJemima Thomas2025-01-23T10:49:36+00:00

SURPRISED? BASE RATE NOW 0.75%

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-blogger

Surprised? Base Rate now 0.75%

The Bank of England have announced today that they have increased the base rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. This will be welcome to anyone peddingly news for the next 24 – 48 hours. It will not however mean that you get much more interest on any cash deposits that you hold. It also is not likely to have a huge impact on mortgages or loans (it will have no impact immediately if you are on a fixed rate loan of any type). The decision to raise the rate was unaminous and part of the attempt to keep inflation at 2%.

The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be after the summer break, on 13 September 2018. If you wish to know more, simply click this link to the Bank’s website.

SURPRISED? BASE RATE NOW 0.75%Dominic2025-01-21T15:33:07+00:00

Don’t Panic! Captain Mainwaring… don’t panic!

Don’t Panic Captain Mainwaring

I find it increasingly difficult to resist the temptation to comment on the world stock markets. The media is constantly moving from positions of fear or greed, buy or sell. This serves their purpose of having something to say and of course becomes something that they then have to continue to say for fear of not providing “the news”. Of course panic is contagious and whenever I see it, I tend to think of Corporal Jones from Dad’s Army – don’t panic Captain Mainwaring.

So what is happening? The price of oil has fallen dramatically. The Chinese economy is not growing as quickly as it was. There is nervousness about the UK leaving the EU, the possibility of a thug winning the US presidential election, perhaps forcing a showdown with anyone with different opinion. Europe has little idea about what to do with thousands fleeing war in Syria or their own ravaged economies offering few prospects of employment. Our own austerity is causing our public services significant stress and of course there is the recurring fears about viruses, war, the environment and terrorism which all play into the narrative of “its bleak”.

Fear and Greed

Shares are part, ownership of businesses. The value of which is based in part on its actual physical assets (premises, stock etc.) and part on future revenue streams (forward orders, based on data from historic orders). There is also the matter of market share, industry sector and general perception of the company. The price of shares is therefore in part objective maths, part subjective opinion.

The problem with sudden shifts in price are invariably linked to a herd mentality – playing inevitably into two camps – fear or greed.

We know this when we invest. It is not new news, but it is certainly hard to live with, particularly when the noise is very loud and the doom-sayers are everywhere.

Any real changes?

If you have genuinely altered your long-term goals and do not wish to invest ever again, you probably should rethink your entire strategy, perhaps investing is not for you. I am being serious.

However if your long term goals remain roughly the same, then the key question is has anything really changed?

Diversification

Your portfolio is split across a variety of asset classes, shares, bonds, cash and commodities. There is a global spread. You have a diversified portfolio. We have established tried and tested evidence based analysis to check that you have the right “mix” of holdings to suit your attitude to risk. To date, whilst the markets have been “disappointing” (understatement) since April 2015, the degree of “shock” is within your tolerance, but it is of course deeply unnerving, very unsatisfying and frustrating.

Time in the market not timing the market

However we are holding to the long-term principles of disciplined investing, which have been proven successful over time. This is simply part of the investment experience, albeit “painful”.

It is very tempting to think that getting out of the market now (or 12 months ago) would provide some solidity. However this is based on the notion of being able to time the market and determine opportune points to get in and out of the market (and which market). This is really therefore a double decision, when to sell and then when to buy again.

Historically, investors (professional and private) get this very wrong. Invariably they panic and sell towards or at the bottom of a market, and then decide to invest again once they are confident in the recovery (which has already happened by the time they get back “in”). This leads to further frustration and doing the exact opposite of what we all know investing is about – sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Selling holdings is the only actual way to make a loss real.

Reserve Levels

Any discussion about your financial plan has involved thinking about an appropriate amount of cash to hold on deposit – your emergency fund. You may have used some of this, you may not. It is there as a buffer, and is designed to mean that you don’t have to take money from investments when they are suffering. Perhaps some adjustments may be prudent, but this is your choice, money should serve you, not the other way around.

I am not pretending that the market turmoil is not scary. This is a normal, understandable reaction to headline news. I know of nobody that likes to lose money. Everyone wants high rewards for low risk. However, unless your circumstances have really changed, if you are at the end of your tether with the concept of “investing”, then stick to the course, taking the life-long perspective.

Pain is part of growth, falls are part of average annual returns, finance is not magic and doesn’t provide any real account of who or what you are.

We remain vigilant, we continue to work in your interests but yes, your funds have reduced in value, but we have no good reason to believe that this will be a permanent status. We do not have a crystal ball and cannot predict the future with certainty, nobody can (despite inferences by others). We are doing our best in an imperfect world. Thankfully, this is 2016 and we are not on rations or at war with the world and whilst not dismissing our troubles (which are very real) perhaps some old school laughter might help.

Dominic Thomas
Solomons IFA

You can read more articles about Pensions, Wealth Management, Retirement, Investments, Financial Planning and Estate Planning on my blog which gets updated every week. If you would like to talk to me about your personal wealth planning and how we can make you stay wealthier for longer then please get in touch by calling 08000 736 273 or email info@solomonsifa.co.uk

Don’t Panic! Captain Mainwaring… don’t panic!Dominic2023-12-01T12:19:27+00:00

What About Common Sense? Budget 2015

What About Common Sense?

There is another Budget tomorrow (Budget 2015). Sadly, the older I get the more cynical I become about whether these achieve anything. I shall be keeping clients posted in due course, but if the last Budget is to act as an indication, expect the unexpected… and as we have an election looming, expect a bribe.

I am concerned about pensions and the constant meddling by Governments of all persuasions. The point of pensions is to encourage people to save for their retirement, so that they are not dependent upon the State, something that would seem in stark contrast to “reforms” over the years. Pensions are meant to be simple, and frankly they could be. The fact that they are not is entirely due to politicians, not the pensions industry. Complicated doesn’t begin to touch the surface of rules that are designed by short-term thinking…. so I shall reserve judgement until tomorrow, once I can actually digest the information rather than rely on newspaper stories.

Dominic Thomas

What About Common Sense? Budget 2015Dominic2025-01-21T15:51:07+00:00

What about China?

For some time now, I’ve been complaining about the oversized contribution from investment in China’s recent expansion

[1]. Actually, I’m not the only one. Policymakers are busily crafting the conditions that might bring about a rebalanced economy – one less reliant on exports & investment and more reliant on domestic demand & consumer spending.

The IMF might be right

‘Investment growth in China declined in the third quarter of 2014, and leading indicators point to a further slowdown. The authorities are now expected to put greater weight on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth and hence the forecast assumes less of a policy response to the underlying moderation. Slower growth in China will also have important regional effects, which partly explains the downward revisions to growth in much of emerging Asia.’ WEO January 2015.

Building more and more factories to house more and more machinery manned by more and more workers will get you a long way; China’s economy is not far off 40 times larger than it was in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping succeeded Mao Zedong. But while ultra-high levels of investment are associated with rapid expansion they’re not generally associated with sustained growth. The returns that are associated with an over-reliance on debt-fuelled investment diminish with time (thanks in part to an inevitable inefficient use of capital) while the risks are amplified (owing to overleverage and rising volumes of non-performing loans).

China, I suggest, has a debt problem – today’s Financial Times reports that ‘Chinese corporations are now among the most indebted in the world’ – but with everything else that is going on in the world[2] investors are not yet fully alive to the possibility of a much slower pace of growth. Indeed the huge premium that the market for Chinese A shares (dominated by domestic investors, it has risen in value by over 60% in the last 6 months) has over the market for B shares (dominated by international investors, it has risen in value by a much less thrilling 19% over the same period) suggests that Chinese investors are most hopeful of sustained high growth rates.

So far as I can see, two paths are apparent; China’s rate of growth can slow in orderly form or disorderly form, but it will slow nevertheless.

Steve Williams

[1] Post 2008 in particular, where gross fixed capital formation has accounted for around half of the Chinese economy[2] It’s all so exciting; an extraordinary oil price decline, huge gulfs in monetary policy between those in the US and Europe, Syriza’s rise to power in Greece, another full-blown Russian crisis and Japanese policymakers throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, in a spectacular attempt to kick-start their economy

What about China?Dominic2023-12-01T12:39:57+00:00

Retail Therapy

Most of us have probably at some point dabbled in a bit of retail therapy, bought something nice to make us feel a bit better. Invariably the feeling is all too fleeting, which most of us observe and move on, however some, much like addicts, seek out another high or buzz, returning to the shops. Unfortunately most western economies are based upon this reality to a greater or lessor extent.

However, whatever your economy is based on, the cold reality of life will eventually be something that cannot be avoided. You may have seen the rather sad tale of Louise Gray, a widow of the 7/7 London bombings. Mrs Gray received a substantial sum from the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority and awards were also made to her son and daughter, which were placed into Trust (presumably a Bare Trust) as the son gained access to the funds at 18. However, he simply took funds out and entrusted them to his mother, who it seems had spent her funds and then spent his. Sadly this resulted in her son Adam taking his mother to court to return the money to him, which she couldn’t so was recently sentenced to imprisonment for 2 years and 8 months.

Of course, I know nothing of the detail of this case, but I imagine that Mrs Gray has found it very hard to adjust to life following the loss of her husband and rather than seeking professional help and support sought comfort in things. Of course, she may have sought and even found some counselling, but even if she did, her behaviour suggests that she was avoiding confronting some very harsh realities, which I imagine would be a difficult process for most people.

It would be easy to dismiss her actions as foolish, yet it is plain that it is far easier to avoid reality than face it. The Greek election vote is something of a vote for denial of reality, but then, aren’t our own politicians in a rush to make promises that in reality delay the unyielding inevitability of collective need to get our finances in order? Whether its tax cuts, tax breaks, spending increases, decreases… it all boils down to some basic sums… you cannot continue to spend what you don’t have, without a day of reckoning. Talk of finally paying off the FIRST World War debt (some £1.9billion is still owed) is somewhat flawed… the debt hasn’t been repaid, its been repackaged… much like switching a credit card balance to a cheaper one isn’t clearing debt. Perhaps you thought that the country would have paid for WW1 by now, some 100 years later…war is expensive in every possible sense! How much better off our Nation would be if we had found the courage to repay debt rather than simply maintain it. The truth can be pretty painful can’t it…..

Dominic Thomas

Retail TherapyDominic2025-01-21T15:44:02+00:00