Pensions: New Freedoms

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-blogger

Pensions Freedom

Have you heard about pensions freedom? Are you approaching retirement and thinking that this is excellent news, you can have your entire pension? Well you are right, but as ever there is a catch. You are free to self-destruct, it is your right to do so (and I’m not being patronising).

On the one hand freedom is good right? but with it comes responsibility (why do I sound like a Spiderman scriptwriter). By responsibility I mean, once you spend it, whether thats taking it as a lump sum or buyng an annuity or leaving it as a Flexible Access Drawdown pension, once it has gone – that’s it. Nothing left… except any other pension income you may have such as the State pension.v_for_vendetta

So this is all about knowing what you have and what you need. Something that no British Government has ever managed to get right for themselves, yet here we are, with new freedoms. So you have to figure out how long you will live to work out how much you can afford to take out each year. Actually rather more than that, you have to predict future inflation rates, mortality rates, investment returns and tax rates…. to name a few “elements”. Of course you could get a financial planner like me to help by doing some cashflow modelling and explaining the options and reviewing progress regularly or you could do it yourself.

Today I learned about a term called the IKEA effect. This is when we place a disproportianately high value on something that has been partially made us. Go on look it up. This is precisely what happens to DIY investors… that portfolio I built, its not bad. Actually the truth is rather different. I mean no disprect to IKEA or DIY investors. This is about a price-point in the market – what you can afford. Arguably you will have to live with both (furniture and your DIY portfolio) but your portfolio has to last your lifetime. I’m all for consumer empowerment and the removal of elist jargon and ivory towers, but information is not the same as experience or indeed knowledge. I wonder if you remember the John West tinned fish TV adverts? its the fish that John West rejects that make them the best. In other words, selection, some might call it curation – is vital.

Building the right portfolio to last for life is a fairly daunting challenge, for a few this isn’t going to be much of a problem, but for the vast majority of people it will be. Most people do not pay attention to the holdings in their ISAs or pensions. Most are in the funds or more likely single fund, that the adviser put them in when they started their pension. Little attention has been paid to assessing the level of contributions needed, frankly its more like lucky dip… and who can blame them! the jargon is a huge barrier, statements are fairly unclear and the rules keep changing, little wonder people don’t spend much time looking after one of their largest assets. Yet suddenly at the point of retirement, they are expecting to become investment experts. Whilst the Government may say that people should be trusted with their own money, thats fine if it relates to the straight-forward stuff of running a budget and basic banking, but when it comes to understanding asset allocation, volatility, sequencing risk, safe withdrawal rates, reductions in yield… well frankly its taxing even for the experts. Your pension is not a shelving unit from IKEA, its more like fitting a pace-maker, one that has to keep you going.

My advice is to get advice – don’t get sucked into short-term thinking and getting some degree of satisfaction from raiding your pension to show your displeasure with the pension company.  Certainly there are better pensions, but you really need to get sensible advice to explore your options properly. You wouldn’t build a house without architectural plans (I hope)… the same is true when it comes to designing a portfolio for life.

Dominic

Pensions: New Freedoms2023-12-01T12:40:08+00:00

Is Financial Services like gun crime?

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Is Financial Services like gun crime?Gun_Crazy

Here in the UK we have some gun crime, its horrible, but it is still thankfully rare. In North America the obession with guns is perplexing, the rising death toll and increasing militarisation of police forces is alarming. We have seen further mishandling and stereotyping lead to deaths in police custody and now further riots in some American cities. I’m not anti-police, I am anti-stupidity and I don’t think I’m telling you anything you don’t already know. America has almost no gun control, you can wander into a gun store or general department store (heck, sometimes they even give them away for opening a bank account -see Bowling for Columbine) and buy a firearm and ammunition. No real checks. We tend to think this is insane.

Yet here in the UK we have an equally perplexing situation which has collectively blind-sided most people. Its in the form of pension advice. Yes that rather dull topic (believe me I know how dull). Anyway it seems that your neighbour – the one that’s tempted by all those offers of too good to be true (because it isn’t true) high investment returns is wreaking havoc with the rest of us, like a loaded gun.

Garbage in, garbage out..

Despite warnings from the regulator, or there being a regulator, believe it or not, there are some “advisers” out there peddling all sorts of… well…”junk”. These always promise high returns, but actually pay high commission (something that is meant to be banned). So I can only assume that the person that does this is greedy, gullable or vulnerable. If the latter, then they have my sympathy and support, but those that are gullable, well it may sound harsh, but at some point in life you have to take some responsibility for your actions. As for the greedy… why should the rest of us pay for your gambling habit? eh?

Back to the gun analogy. Say I am a shop keeper, I don’t sell guns, in fact I sell books, but the guy nextdoor does. Guess what? his customer went on a rampage in the mall and shot 60 people. Being a shopkeeper I am sent a bill for compensation because I am a shop keeper.

What do I mean? Well pensions are regulated products and in theory should be arranged by regulated advisers. However in some products (SIPPs – Self Invested Personal Pensions) you can hold “uncoventional” funds… or what I might call “stuff you shouldn’t ever touch”. The regulator (FCA) would call this “non-mainstream funds” and in fact categorise them as “unregulated” in other words not regulated and therefore not actually protected by compensation. However because they were bought through a SIPP (regulated) and arranged by an adviser (regulated) therefore when it predictably goes wrong (it will) anyone that is an adviser gets to pay for the compensation. Now I don’t know about you, but I thought being an adult involved taking responsibility for your actions, so being one, I don’t sue people every time decisions I take don’t work out right.

Yes inflation is 0% but fees increase 75%

I tell you this because on top of a £20million levy a few days ago in March, the new annual levy has been set, increased from last years £57million to £100million for those that arrange pensions (shop keepers). This levy always comes with 30 days to pay (thanks). This is only a fraction of the full regulatory fees that I and other adviser firms have to pay.

Nobody to blame… but the good guys can pay up right?

The pension companies that allowed these investments in their pensions claim “not guilty – the adviser did it”, the regulator claims “We can’t use our product intervention powers on unregulated investments”… so cannot stop the funds being sold (or bought).

Those that sold these things have scuttled off elsewhere, probably to re-emerge in a different guise, leaving the dwindling number of firms (now about 5,300) and advisers (now around 24,000 from about 250,000 20 years ago) to pay the bill. The bill is paid by the firm and is enough to wipeout some firms, meaning that next year….the numbers reduce, so the share of the bill increases. There is only so much “cost” that a small firm can manage before needing to pass this on to their clients. I therefore predict that as a consequence, many advisers will be “forced” to put up their fees… which means you are also coughing up for the greed of your neighbour, because they cannot be bothered to take any responsibility for believing in fairytales…

Sorry to moan, but seriously… this isn’t fair is it? Of course people that have been ripped off need compensating, but seriously, you didnt think investing in a timeshare via your pension was normal did you? Your comments would be very welcome…. perhaps I am missing something, perhaps my entire profession is… in which case I’d like to know so that I have a snowballs chance of improving it.

Dominic Thomas

Is Financial Services like gun crime?2023-12-01T12:40:08+00:00

Are you protected online?

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Are you protected online?

Today has been a fairly frustrating day with a few IT problems. Thankfully nothing too serious, but I paused to reflect on how frustrating a slow computer can be…. yet I’m old enough to remember a time when getting onto the internet was a major event, when loading software was more or less hardware (floppy disk drives) or even a tape casette loading for what now would seem like eternity. So despite my morning blues, I ought to be a little more grateful of the progress that has been made by everyone concerned.

When your IT doesn’t do what its meant to do, I tend to think of how I might improve things. The ability to access information securely, pretty much anywhere, anytime. It reminded me of a conversation with someone recently who isn’t keen on financial protection. I have some sympathy with this perspective – after all who likes insurance? (other than insurance companies). However when or if you need to make a claim you are pretty glad you have it. So I tried to think of a useful analogy… we were meeting online… so I asked if he had virus protection? yes – Do you back up your computer? yes – Why? because the disruption, stress and chaos caused without it isn’t worth comtemplating.

Precisely the reason why you’d have any form of financial protection, except the consequences are rather more severe than data loss. As I outlined last week, there are various forms of financial protection, getting the right cover is rather like getting the right virus software…. something that perhaps Mr Stark (Iron Man) in the latest Avengers movie (Age of Ultron) might also want to remember… mind you, I suspect his cover might have a few extra clauses given his occupation.

Are you protected online?2023-12-01T12:40:07+00:00

Do You Need Financial Protection?

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-bloggerDo You Need Financial Protection?

A question I’m often asked is do I need financial protection? frankly this is rarely the question… most people are really asking if insurance is worthwhile. Given the scandal of PPI, and a general mistrust of financial services, it is little wonder. Add in the reality that there is a general assumption that such contracts are designed to favour the insurer and the lawyer involved, many question whether the insurers would ever pay out.LifeHappens

OK, there is little I am going to be able to say to convince anyone that is suspicious about “the system”. All I can do is point you to data about claims paid and also relate my own experience. In all the years I have been advising clients, I have unfortunately had a number of claims. All of them were accepted, only one was not paid out at the full amount (they paid 73% citing non-disclosure of material health matters). We are currently considering whether to contest this or not, I can see both sides of the argument – but obviously represent my client, so will represent his interests.

In essence there are really only three types of financial protection I deal with for individuals. So let’s cover what these are.

1. Life assurance – you die, it pays out. Price is everything, there is pretty much nothing between providers on terms and conditions, however there are a myriad of types of life assurance policy and enormous differences in cost.

2. Critical Illness Cover – this is much more contentious. Terms and conditions are everything, quality is upmost, price is secondary – you pay for what you get. However cost still varies enormously. This cover pays out if you are diagnosed with a serious medical condition – it pays you. The main conditions are cancer, heart attack and stroke….all stuff that most of us would prefer not to think about, but probably know several people (depending on your age) that have experienced this.

3. Income Protection – this  pays your income if you cannot work due to incapacity and an inability to return to work. Generally cover would pay until you are better and can return to work, or until the policy maturity date (invariably your retirement date). It isn’t so contentious, these days a lot of employers provide cover. Certainly terms are important – most basic being does it pay out if you cannot do your job or any job or any job for which you are suitably skilled/able.  Cover is always less than your total income, as this provides an incentive for the claimant to “make a recovery” and also reduces fraud. Cost varies considerably. Generally cover is a percentage of income, up to a maximum and starts typically after 3, 6 or 12 months of “being unwell”… the longer this “deferred” period, the cheaper the cover. This isn’t accurate… but gives you an idea.

Which job would you prefer?

Job A: £60,000 per annum

Job B: £59,500 per annum plus £38,675 per annum until 65 if you have a long term illness.

As I say, its not accurate, lots of if’s but’s and maybe’s…. but hopefully I am conveying the concept.

So how much cover do you need?

That depends entirely on your circumstances, the cost of your lifestyle, your age and your level of debt and if you have anyone that is relying on you. It is generally true that the more you need cover, the less you can afford it… think of a young family who have a tight budget…precisely because they have a tight budget they need cover. Some people don’t need any cover (because they have ample resources). In essence they are self-insuring, however some of these people would prefer to pay for insurance so that they pass the risk to the insurer rather than bear it themselves, so using funds for other, more enjoyable purposes.

Reviewing Cover

So you have a load of old policies. You have some cover. Sometimes it isn’t a good idea to change the cover –  the policies where terms and conditions matter generally are weaker and more vague these days than they once were. However some can be reviewed. Don’t forget on the whole your debt should be reducing and you and your family, if you have one are older, less dependent.

FT FAAwards2015

Financial Times (FT) Financial Adviser Awards 2015

Yesterday I attended the FT Financial Adviser Awards – having been nominated for “Protection Adviser of the Year”. I’m pleased to say that it was a podium finish (2nd)… which isn’t bad (the winner is a thoroughly good adviser that I respect – genuine congratulations). Of course I would have preferred to win – but hey, out of 24,000 advisers in the UK… I, like Nico Rosberg need to keep improving. However I don’t really know the exact reason why I came second (unlike F1 there isn’t a final lap chequered flag. I assume it cannot be based on the amount of protection business I arranged over the last year (consider the big networks of advisers or Bank employees), so I presume it is the quality of the advice process, perhaps also because I have always removed commission from protection policies (reducing the cost for clients) which is still unusual and not a regulatory requirement of “adviser charging rules”. Perhaps it was the case study, business model or interview that revealed the quality rather than the quantity of our protection advice. At this stage I don’t know, but what I do know is that if you find yourself in a nightmare scenario – the inability to earn, or life threatening illness or worse – suddenly bereaved, having cover in place that removes financial stress makes all the difference in the world. Because sometimes in life stuff happens that we don’t like.

Dominic Thomas

 

Do You Need Financial Protection?2023-12-01T12:40:06+00:00

Are You Safely Connected?

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-bloggerAre You Safely Connected?futurecrimes

You are online and connected, so in the interests of providing you with some useful information about the online world, I thought I’d share a podcast (and video) that I listened to recently. This is taken from a really useful free resource website called “I Love Marketing” which is run by Joe Polish and Dean Jackson. I know that marketing isn’t everyone’s thing… but don’t forget that I run a small business and also work with many clients that run small (and large) businesses… and these guys have some really good ways of helping understand marketing, so that we all waste less time wasting each other’s time and get to what we all actually want (or need). As someone that did a Business Studies Degree with a specialism in Marketing, albeit many years ago, I can genuinely say that these guys provide information that can be implemented – its practical and it works.

Anyway, episode 189 of the I Love Marketing podcast or the video (here) is really worth spending your time. I tend to listen to podcasts at 1.5x speed, which saves some time and remains clear. Joe interviews Marc Goodman, a guy with a new book (yes ok, something to promote) all about the near future of technology. We think we’ve seen an explosion of things to save time, learn and so on… online, but he argues its nothing to what is coming… and with it there is a price – the need for much better understanding of security and the possible flaws in your own technology at home or work, which are exposing you to possible crime. The podcast or video is a reasonable length, but well worth your time.

ilmlogoOf course if you run a business or are in a marketing role, then I’d certainly suggest you check out Joe and Dean’s website and podcasts. They are an engaging pair with a wealth of great ideas and invaluable experience. The podcast can be found on itunes here. I’ve been listening to I Love Marketing for some time and hope that by sharing this you, if you are a marketeer or business owner, also get some really useful ideas from it. You can check out Joe’s bio page here and Dean Jackson here.

Dominic Thomas

Are You Safely Connected?2023-12-01T12:40:06+00:00

Would You Risk It?

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-bloggerWould You Risk It?

I recently watched a Swedish film by Ruben Ostlund called “Force Majeure” which had me squirming in my seat. Its the story of a family on a skiing holiday in the alps, who get caught up in an avalanche, which of course is merely symbolic of everything else that is going on in their lives. It’s a convincing story if somewhat realist and slow in pace. As someone that has only been skiing once (which I loved) but also knowing many people that have had fairly miserable and even tragic tales from the slopes, this film ended any thoughts I had about taking my family on a skiing holiday, even though I am well aware that it can be a wonderful experience. force majeure

I won’t spoil the story for you and it probably isn’t what you may expect of the story from simply using the words family, holiday, skiiing, avalanche. However this is an exhausting look at how stress is handled, magnified in the dynamic of a family holiday. In the film, the couple (Tomas and Lisa) seem much more willing to take risks and lead their two young children in a way that I simply wouldn’t even contemplate – because I think of them as being unsafe. However its deeper than that.. its also the risks people understand and assess (or not) on a much broader level. The nation that build Volvo’s (the safest cars?) flips the notion of risk on its head when reduced to the individual and relationships.

The film prompted much discussion and reflection, but with my my financial planner hat on, I tried to draw a few lessons. On the one hand, the setting of busy people carving out time to spend with their family and friends and enjoying “the good life” is some of the “stuff” that is talked about in a financial planning meeting… ie. how do you really want to spend your time? what do you value? what’s the purpose/reason for you working so hard? This is only part of the start of a conversation, which invariably lasts much longer than a single meeting…. after all we are discussing your life plans right?

In the design and implementation of a financial plan and experiencing the “process” I believe that many of our clients look for a sense of leadership and guidance, not in a patronising way, but one that reflects a weathered, seasoned expert that has been on the track getting people from A to B. I do not believe that they expect me to take shortcuts, go off-piste or compose a different version of reality to suit my perspective. There is far more to it than simply getting from A to B anyway… its the journey and your unique values and “milestones”.

Many of us were brought up to ask questions, but soon learned that to do so exposed a lack of knowledge. The peer pressure of school for many is more than sufficient to have the opposite effect to the one your teacher hoped for. For many this carries into adult life, not wishing to ask “dumb questions” for fear of being seen to appear foolish. I believe that there are no “dumb questions”… none of us knows everything. So in the perilous world of investing and planning a life (which doesn’t come with an instruction book) it is sensible to get a guide, someone that you can trust to help you with your journey. Even the best skiiers were taught and the very best still get coached.

The final sequence in the film reveals someone that is paid to take people from A to B yet appears to possess none or very few of the required practical skills, let alone social ones. As for me, I may have a different take on the risk of skiing, those of you that are skiiers may think I’m daft… that’s not really my point, but merely to highlight and understand the risks involved. Thats also partly what I do for clients – helping them to see the risks that they are really running, be that taking too much (or too little) investment risk, banking their future on the sale of their home/business, gaining an inheritance and so on… none of which is “wrong” provided that you know what you are getting into… its not a matter of “a different perception” but of seeing what is there. Just because I wouldn’t risk it, doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t… but you may want to benefit from taking a moment or two to ensure that your thinking and assumptions are “solid” and that you aren’t standing on very thin ice… or hurtling down a mountain in the fog. So what are the risks you are running within your own financial planning? Why not begin a conversation with me to make your journey much more sure-footed.

Here’s the trailer. Do get out to support your local independent cinema and independent movies/arts if you can.

Dominic Thomas

Would You Risk It?2023-12-01T12:40:05+00:00

Howzat?

Solomons-financial-advisor-wimbledon-bloggerHowzat?

James Anderson recently became England’s most successful bowler as he took his as he took his 384th wicket, that belonging to Denesh Ramdin and overtaking Ian Botham in the process. This is of course an incredible achievement in International cricket – congratulations Mr Anderson. So I was surprised to see an item on the BBC sports website that attempted to work out who really was/is the best bowler England have ever had.

Sport as you will know has become increasingly dominated by statistics – attempts on target, completed passes, distance run, speed of delivery the list is very long and naturally varies from sport to sport. When winning any sport tournament, many rather dull teams/individuals have argued that its not the manner of the victory, just that there was a victory. I cannot help but think of the time Greece won the 2004 European Football championship (sorry Greece)… or for that matter many Champions League finals, where one team essentially set up camp in their own penalty area hoping to counter attack and steal a victory. Wisden

Cricket is not new to adopting statisitical analysis – arguably starting the statistical obsession with John Wisden’s annual almanac started in 1864. So anyone wishing to pour over cricket statistics has had plenty of opportunity to do so. Anyway the BBC asked its pundits to assess England’s top 10 bowlers and ascribe a value to the wicket taken. In short a batsman that averages 50 runs is worth more than one that averages 5. Recompiling the data provides a different twist with Matthew Hoggard topping the list (248 wickets). Whilst this is “all very interesting” sport, like life cannot be metered into a nice, neat formula. There is always a context, which even with a lengthy span of statistical data is flawed. For example – the quality of the opposition is a key ingredient, the prevailing rules, TV replays and so on, let alone the context of the pressure of the moment. Statistics are cold, unrepentent and have no context other than a time period.

Investment returns and the charts that you see plastered on advertising boards or in any media are similarly misleading. Most investors probably know that this is the case, but few behave as if it is. Most investors are tempted to invest once returns are good, most sell when they have been poor, on average chasing returns, receiving below-average market returns at above market cost. Sadly the equivalent best investment “gongs” or awards also measure historic data (there is no other) and the context of this is against peers. Who is the best fund manager? well it rather depends on which sector, what timeframe, what measure of risk is used, and what luck was involved. In short, its an impossible task, yet many play the game and attempt to quantify who is “best”.

In practice, the only investment returns that matter are the ones that you actually get. Cricket, motor racing, football, tennis, golf…are all enjoyable escapes, but again the only best that any sportsman/woman can be is their own best, in the context of their sport, time, team and luck. I have nothing against awards for best this or that, (they can be a lot of fun – especially if you win one or two) but as ever, context is everything. I can only be the best financial planner that I can be, constantly striving to improve and be better than I was last year, last month, last week… and of course our service (like most) is not for everyone, but for those that want and need it… well we try to make it the best possible.

Dominic Thomas

Howzat?2023-12-01T12:40:04+00:00

Retiring Doctors and GPs?

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Retiring Doctors and GPs?

Lately I have found myself between a rock and a hard place when advising my medical clients. Through no fault of their own, many long-serving Consultants are being punished due to poorly thought through rules about the Lifetime Allowance and Annual Allowance. Whilst on the one hand they are “lucky” to have large pension funds, that are by comparison “brilliant” the fault of successive Governments to fail to do their sums is hardly their fault. Indeed if ever there was an appropriate use of the term “moving the goalposts” it is surely fitting for what has happened to public sector pensions, particularly the NHS Pension Scheme, which was revised in 2008 and has now morphed into the 2015 Scheme (from the start of this month).

The changes have meant that members have to guess when they might best retire… in some specialities that is “a challenge”, most have to pay more, work longer and accrue less, whilst, (if reports are to be believed) having to cope with a greater workload, politically motivated “targets” and an under resourced organisation.

As a result of blown 2012 Fixed Protection and further reductions to the Lifetime Allowance, many of those that I work with are somewhat fed up with the powerlessness that they feel in relation to their pension rights. I cannot speak of widespread disatisfaction, but certainly those that I know within the medical community (quite a number) are “cheesed off”. The way benefits are calculated are ludicrously complicated and often mean that extra taxes are payable – through no fault of the doctor – simply by being in the scheme and having an increase in pay which is out of sync with the defined limits. I’m not talking small taxes here – but excess amounts that are deemed to have been paid as income, even though this is not the case in reality (it isn’t paid as income)…

According to the BMA, a poll of over 15,000 GP’s indicated that 34% of them expected to retire within the next 5 years. Statistics out of context can be used to support any argument, so a headline such as this one needs some unpicking.HSCIS report2015

According to the GMC, there are about 60,000 licensed doctors on the GP Register for the whole of the UK. The GP register has been around since 2006 and requires that all practicing GPs keep their license and records up to date. This figure is for the whole of the UK and does include some possible double-counting as some specialists are GPs and vice versa. In England there are 40,584 GPs and according to data published last month by the Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSCIC), for the first time there are now more practicing female GPs (20,435) than male GPs (19,801). In any event, a suvery of 15,000 is therefore a survey of about 37% of the entire workforce by headcount… which is a significant survey, one might say a very solid survey, certainly when considered as a percentage of the relevant population – unlike the current political polls or those TV adverts for women’s products that claim high rates of satisfaction (so small that it is questionable if the people conducting the survey actually left their office building)… so this survey, unlike some, is rather “worth it”. Of course, not all GPs work full-time, the figures are a headcount, not a precise allocation of full-time GPs, the full-time equivalent number of GPs is 36,920. If trainees and retainers are excluded, then the full-time equivalent is 32,628.

By way of “hard facts” here are some NHS statistics to consider, I have taken these from the HSCIC report, which frankly could make the statistics much clearer… anyway…

1,387,692 Total NHS workforce (1,187,606 FTE)

of which

701,872 are professionally qualified clinical staff (623,050 FTE)… 50.5%

42,733 Consultants (40,443 FTE)…. 3.0% of NHS staff

55,079 Hospital Doctors (53,786 FTE)…. 3.9% of NHS staff

37,078 Managers (35,164 FTE)….2.6%

36,920 General Practitioners (32,628 FTE)… 2.6%

377,191 Nurses, including GP nurses (328,577 FTE)….27.1%

The problems of staffing within GP surgeries looks set to continue and frankly, if politicians contrinue to play havoc with the pensions (Lifetime Allowance and Annual Allowance nonsense) of doctors and nurses, they may well also be considering earlier retirement. Future PM, you have been warned…

Dominic Thomas

Retiring Doctors and GPs?2023-12-01T12:40:04+00:00

Living on the Edge

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Living on the Edge

Digital innovation has democratised access to financial information to the point where anyone with a smartphone, a few apps and real-time news and data feeds can be like a pro trader. But who wants to do that? And do you need to? In the world of information flows, speed is barely an issue anymore. And the old hierarchies, where professionals with state of the art systems had priority access to breaking news, have been progressively dismantled.

For instance, a $500 smartphone with a 1.3 gigahertz processor is more than a thousand times faster than the Apollo guidance computer that sent astronauts to the moon nearly half a century ago. Its internal memory is 250,000 times bigger.

Time and Moneyedge_of_tomorrow

The upshot is that financial and other information comes at us faster and in greater volumes than ever. We no longer have to wait for the six o’clock TV news to know what happened in markets today. Our apps notify us in real time. But amid this era of always-on news flow, the big question for most of us is not about our access to real-time information; it’s about whether we actually need to be so plugged in to have a successful investment experience. Dealing with that question starts with reflecting how much of an investment “edge” you get by having access to information that is so freely available.

Returning to the problem

On that score, there’s an old concept in economics called the law of diminishing returns. It essentially says that adding more and more of one input, while keeping everything else constant, gives you progressively less bang for your buck.

At the industrial end of this technology arms race, you have the high frequency traders who spend a fortune on advanced communications infrastructure to try to take advantage of split second changes in millions of prices. On the evolutionary scale, these computer programs make smart phones look like ploughshares. So against that background it’s not clear that adding the latest market-minder app to your iPhone is necessarily the path to investment success.

The second question to ask is what you are trying to achieve. Are you trying to “beat” the market by finding mistakes in prices and timing your entry and exit points? If so, and given the competition above, you might want to review your information budget.

The truth for most of us is that investment is not an end in itself, but a means to an end. We want to save for a house or put our children through school or look after aging parents or give ourselves a good chance of a comfortable retirement.

In this context, the most relevant information is about our own lives and circumstances. How much do we spend? How much can we save? What’s our risk appetite? What are our future needs? And how much of a cash buffer do we need?

Independent Advice

This is the value an independent financial advisor can bring—not in trying to second-guess the market or using forecasts to gamble with your money—but in understanding the life situation of each person and what each of them needs.

Ultimately, markets are so competitive that we really are wasting our own precious resources by trying to game them. What most of us need is to secure the long-term capital market rates of return as efficiently as possible. So our limited resource is not speed or access to information, but our own time. We only have a short window to live the lives we want. And that means we should start any investment plan with understanding ourselves.

That’s where the edge is.

Living on the Edge2023-12-01T12:40:03+00:00

Pension Timebomb

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Pension Timebomb

Ok its April 1st, but this isn’t an April Fools Day joke…. this is data from the Policy Exchange, founded in 2002 to help contribute the national thinking about society. I don’t know if it is the case, but it would appear that the Coalition Government had a look at this before deciding to introduce the pension rules that come into effect next week. However if you are someone still saving for a pension or an employer, the findings are not great reading, with both needng to contribute rather more to pensions. Clicking on the graphic should make it larger.

Help to Save: Defusing the pensions time bomb

Dominic Thomas
Pension Timebomb2023-12-01T12:40:03+00:00
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